American investor and Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary is pushing back against the growing conviction that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December and against the idea that crypto investors should be betting big on that outcome.
“I don’t actually think the Fed's gonna cut in December,” O’Leary told Cointelegraph in an interview on Tuesday, adding that even if markets are wrong, it’s “not gonna make a difference to Bitcoin.”
His comments come just as traders pile into bets that the Fed will move. Crypto prediction platforms Polymarket show odds above 95% for a quarter-point cut at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, while traditional rate tools like CME’s FedWatch are showing probabilities close to 90%.
Who is Kevin O’Leary, and Why His View Matters
O’Leary, nicknamed “Mr. Wonderful,” is best known as a venture investor and TV personality on Shark Tank, but he’s also a long-time portfolio manager and entrepreneur who’s become increasingly vocal on digital assets.
He has invested in multiple crypto ventures, has publicly disclosed personal Bitcoin holdings, and frequently speaks on how institutions view the asset class. That gives his macro take extra weight for retail traders who often try to front-run central bank moves with crypto bets. In this case, he’s doing the opposite of the crowd.
“I’m not investing that way. I’m not investing as if the Fed is going to cut rates,” he said, arguing there are “lots of reasons why they might not.”
O’Leary points straight back to the Fed’s dual mandate. He notes there is still “a lot of inflation in the system,” with annual inflation running around 3%, the highest since January. The central bank is forced to juggle full employment and price stability, he said, and new tariffs and rising input costs complicate that balancing act rather than argue clearly for easier policy.
Markets Are Screaming ‘Cut’
The backdrop to his skepticism is a market that has become almost laser-focused on the Fed. A surprisingly weak ADP report showed private payrolls falling by 32,000 in November, versus economists’ expectations for a 40,000 gain.
That miss turbocharged bets that the Fed will ease sooner to support a softening labor market. Stocks rallied on the print, with the Dow jumping more than 400 points as traders leaned into the “cut next week” narrative.
Is Bitcoin Less Rate-Sensitive Than Traders Think?
Crypto traders typically see rate cuts as bullish; when yields on bonds and savings accounts drop, risk assets like tech stocks and Bitcoin tend to look more attractive. That’s why some fear a “hawkish surprise” - the Fed holding instead of cutting - could trigger another leg down in crypto.
Bitcoin has already fallen more than 17% over the past 30 days and is trading around $91,000.