Chainlink’s native token, LINK, has yet to fully rebound from October’s market downturn that dragged the crypto asset briefly below $16. But it gained 3% over the past week to trade around $18.5.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson now believes that a possible upside breakout before year-end could emerge despite broader market weakness in 2025.
LINK May Be Near a Local Bottom
The MVRV Z-Score, an important on-chain metric used to assess whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued, has historically provided strong buy signals for LINK whenever it turned negative. However, the metric is currently trending downward, which points to a more cautious investor mood amid muted demand for cryptocurrencies this year.
LINK remains far below the euphoric MVRV levels seen in its previous cycle, which has left traders wondering when enthusiasm will return.
Meanwhile, the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta has proven to be another reliable indicator for the crypto asset. At present, it sits in negative territory, which often points to a local price bottom and potential for a rebound. Despite this, Wedson stresses the importance of cross-verifying this signal with other on-chain models that map out critical support and resistance zones.
Following the sharp October correction, large short liquidation clusters have built up around $26.4 and $28.3. These levels could trigger a rapid upward move if price momentum revisits those zones.
On the technical front, its Dynamic Moving Average (MA) and Price Ratios remain supportive. Since 2024, every instance where the token fell below its key moving averages has marked a solid accumulation phase. Encouragingly, LINK is currently holding above the 720-day MA.
Should it break below that threshold, Wedson explained that it is best to wait at least two weeks before concluding whether it’s a genuine breakdown or a temporary bull trap. In summary, while speculative on-chain data for LINK is still somewhat weak, it remains net positive. Selling pressure has largely dominated, yet such phases often precede recovery. With major shorts now exposed and price stability above key MAs, a decisive move above $25 might serve as the spark that reignites investor optimism.
Ready For Liftoff?
Crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa shared a cautiously optimistic outlook as he described it as “a pretty decent-looking coin” in his recent post on X. He noted that LINK’s price action is likely to remain range-bound between $17 and $20 in the short term. Following this consolidation, the asset could be gearing up for another leg higher once accumulation within this zone is complete.
Another analyst compared Chainlink’s price movements with the M2 Money Supply, using an approximate 320-day offset, and said that a new phase of the bull market could begin toward the end of November or early December, which could potentially last until May 2026.
According to the analyst, LINK’s best reflects the correlation with M2 using this offset, though the pattern is considered relevant for the broader crypto market as well. He noted that the largest liquidation event occurred just before a major M2 expansion, which supports the narrative that the next bull market phase could be particularly intense. However, the analysis also pointed out that volatility and uncertainty are expected to persist until the end of November.