New Exchange to Offer Prediction Markets and Derivatives
Robinhood is establishing a futures and derivatives exchange through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. This strategic move aims to expand its prediction markets offerings. The new exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026.
The joint venture will be controlled by Robinhood Markets Inc. As part of the agreement, Robinhood will acquire MIAXdx, a Derivatives Clearing Organization and Swap Execution Facility, from Miami International Holdings. MIAXdx is a designated contract market licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Under the plan, MIAX will retain a 10% equity stake in the new exchange. Susquehanna is committed to serving as a day-one liquidity provider, with plans to onboard additional liquidity partners in subsequent phases.
Customer Demand Drives Prediction Market Growth
The new exchange is set to offer a range of futures and derivative products, with a particular focus on prediction markets. JB Mackenzie, VP and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, highlighted that the company is observing strong customer demand for prediction markets.
Prediction markets have emerged as Robinhood's fastest-growing product line by revenue. To date, over 1 million customers have traded more than 9 billion contracts across the platform's prediction market offerings.
In March, Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to launch a prediction markets hub within its app, operating under Robinhood Derivatives. This hub provides a platform for trading on U.S. politics, macroeconomic indicators, and sports events.
Further expanding its offerings, the company rolled out sports-related markets tied to the NFL and NCAA football in August, also in collaboration with Kalshi. Analysts from Bernstein have noted that prediction markets are evolving beyond simple event betting, becoming broader venues for information trading.
Market Landscape for Prediction Platforms
U.S.-regulated Kalshi has shown significant growth, outperforming rival Polymarket in monthly trading volume since September. In October, Kalshi recorded $4.4 billion in volume, while Polymarket registered $3.02 billion. These figures are according to The Block's dashboard, which tracks cryptocurrency and prediction market activity.