Ripple's native cross-border token, XRP, is currently approaching a significant technical resistance zone that is poised to determine its short-term price direction. Following the formation of what analysts describe as a textbook corrective structure, the focus is now on the $2.26 price area. A failure to surpass this level could potentially trigger a more substantial downward movement for the asset.
Technical Pattern Identifies $2.26 as a Key Level for XRP
Crypto analyst CasiTrades has observed that XRP is exhibiting a classic A-B-C corrective pattern. The initial 'A' wave of this pattern concluded near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, approximately at $2.23. Subsequently, the asset experienced a pullback to $2.11, marking the completion of the 'B' wave. The pattern now suggests that XRP is entering the 'C' wave.
CasiTrades elaborated on this observation, stating,
“If this truly is a Wave 2 correction, we should see price reject near the .618 retracement around ~$2.26.”
A decisive rejection from this critical $2.26 level could serve as an indicator for the commencement of a downward trend. In such a scenario, immediate support levels would be found at $2.11 and $2.03, with the projected Wave 3 potentially targeting $1.65. The analyst also highlighted a crucial boundary for this bearish setup: "A Wave 2 cannot make a new local high above $2.41," meaning any price movement exceeding this threshold would invalidate the bearish outlook.
As of the latest reporting, XRP is trading around the $2.10 mark. The token has recorded a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $4 billion, according to data from CoinGecko. Over the past 24 hours, XRP has seen a 2% decrease in value, and its performance over the last seven days shows a decline of nearly 1%.
Current technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding near 61, suggest that there is still room for price appreciation before the asset reaches overbought territory. With trading volume remaining robust, market participants are closely monitoring XRP's interaction with the $2.26 resistance level. The reaction at this price point is anticipated to be a significant determinant of the near-term price trend.
Analysis of Bearish Targets and Alternative Scenarios for XRP
Another analyst, EGRAG CRYPTO, has also provided insights into potential downside scenarios for XRP. They indicated that if XRP's current position mirrors that of previous cycles, the market could potentially witness drawdowns of approximately 31% or even 47%.
“If we are sitting in a similar structural position to previous cycles… we could still experience: ~31% drawdown, ~47% drawdown.”
These projections suggest that possible low targets for XRP could range between $1.40 and $1.20. However, EGRAG CRYPTO also emphasized a positive long-term perspective, stating,
“Long term, nothing is bearish in XRP’s fundamentals or structure.”
In addition to these analyses, a separate weekly chart presented by Ali Martinez indicates a recent sell signal for XRP. This signal follows a prolonged buy signal that had been in effect earlier in the year.
Despite the short-term caution signaled by technical analysts, institutional interest in Ripple and its ecosystem remains evident. Ripple has recently secured preliminary approval for an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license in Luxembourg. This development is part of Ripple's broader strategy to expand its regulated payment services across the European Union, in compliance with MiCA rules.
🇱🇺 @Ripple is pursuing an EMI license in Luxembourg as part of its MiCA strategy to expand regulated payments across the EU. The process is ongoing and would allow Ripple to offer services across the EEA once approved. pic.twitter.com/J77Uohox47
— CryptoPotato Official (@Crypto_Potato) January 14, 2026
Further evidence of sustained investor activity can be seen in the performance of exchange-traded products linked to XRP. These products recorded over $10 million in net inflows on January 14, contributing to a cumulative total of approximately $1.26 billion in inflows, according to data from SoSoValue. Concurrently, the supply of XRP held on exchanges has decreased to below 2 billion tokens, a notable drop from over 4 billion tokens observed in late 2025.