Researcher: XRP Hitting $20 Isn’t Hopium. ETFs Will Force Price to Revalue

A growing number of analysts no longer see XRP reaching $20+ as wishful thinking. Rather, they argue that structural forces—especially from spot ETF mechanics—could trigger a major revaluation. The case for such a move is gaining traction, not just on social media, but within models grounded in real capital flows.

On X, crypto researcher Ripple Bull Winkle has championed this thesis. He highlights how ETF inflows could compress XRP’s available supply and create a powerful upward dynamic. His analysis, supported by on-chain data, suggests that the supply picture could tighten aggressively just as institutional demand floods in.

ETF Demand and Supply Compression

One of the central drivers of this revaluation is the ETF “creation” model. Unlike futures ETFs, spot XRP ETFs must acquire the underlying token. That means each inflow forces the fund manager to buy actual XRP, removing it from liquid markets.

As a result, circulating supply—especially what’s readily tradable—could shrink sharply. This holds even more weight if long-term holders and institutional treasuries lock up their XRP, further limiting sell-side liquidity.

Evidence of a Supply Shock

This isn’t just speculative math. According to Ripple Bull Winkle, there was a dramatic withdrawal of 1.4 million XRP—valued at around $336 million—from centralized exchanges in just 24 hours.

Such a move aligns with what many supply-shock models predict: as ETFs launch, exchange reserves drop, and a decoupling between price and available float begins.

Multipliers, Models, and Price Projections

Analysts like Zach Rector have put numbers on these dynamics. Rector estimates that even conservative ETF inflows—say $5–$10 billion in a year—could expand XRP’s market capitalization massively. He applies a “multiplier effect” to this inflow, which, under certain assumptions, supports a price in the $20–$30 range.

These projections rely on basic arithmetic but are rooted in empirical observations, Rector argues. He cites past trading periods where modest inflows produced outsized market-cap growth, then scales that logic to a future where institutional ETF capital predominates.

Why $20+ Is More Than Theory

If ETFs repeatedly force new token purchases—and if large holders refuse to sell—then XRP’s available supply should tighten meaningfully. That could set the stage for sustained upward price pressure, not just speculative spikes.

WisdomTree and other asset managers have also issued warnings about a looming supply crunch that could outpace what Bitcoin and other assets experienced. However, Ripple Bull Winkle suggests this supply compression is not distant: it may already be underway.

Risks and Considerations

Of course, this thesis hinges on execution. ETF approvals must actually arrive, and channels must attract lasting capital. There is also regulatory risk: approval is not guaranteed, and flows may disappoint early.

Even if ETFs launch, a “sell the news” event could trigger short-term drawdowns as seen in the last couple of days, despite the launch of the canary XRP ETF (XRPC).

Another factor is on-chain liquidity. As XRP reserves on exchanges vanish, price evenness could suffer—meaning rapid moves in either direction once supply-demand dynamics truly shift.

According to Ripple Bull Winkle and a growing set of independent analysts, the $20+ XRP narrative is not wishful thinking—it is the logical outcome of ETF-driven supply mechanics.

Once institutions pour money into physically backed funds, fresh buying could collide with tightening float, sparking a profound revaluation. For those who once dismissed such a target as “hopium,” the conversation may need to change.