A significant shift may be on the horizon for the XRP market, with rising institutional demand and a shrinking liquid supply. Experts are warning of a potential supply shock that could be unprecedented.
Crypto researcher Ripple Bull Winkle detailed this risk in a video shared on his X (formerly Twitter) account. He stated:
The XRP ETF math you’re about to see is so insane it doesn’t even feel real. And once you understand it, you’ll finally get why price isn’t going to go up — it’s gonna detonate.
ETF-Driven Demand
Bull Winkle's analysis suggests that the introduction of 12 spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) could generate substantial buying pressure.
He elaborated on the potential scale:
Here’s the part that no one’s talking about. We’re not looking at a handful of ETFs. We’re looking at 12 XRP ETFs that each need daily acquisitions just to maintain their inflows. Now watch the math on this. If the daily average is 11 million XRP per ETF, then 12 funds means 132 million XRP acquired every single day.
XRP SUPPLY SHOCK INCOMING! ($200 #XRP NEXT !?) pic.twitter.com/iwIGgIDWgi
— Ripple Bull Winkle | Crypto Researcher 🚀🚨 (@RipBullWinkle) November 18, 2025
This consistent daily acquisition by each ETF is expected to create sustained upward pressure on XRP's price, potentially overwhelming the available liquid supply.
Weekly, Monthly, and Yearly Impact
Bull Winkle further detailed the cumulative effect of these ETF purchases over time:
Take that into a normal trading week — five days — you’re removing 666 million XRP from circulation in one week. Now the monthly projection: that’s 2.64 billion XRP vacuumed up from exchanges and stuffed into cold storage. Gone. Untouchable. Now the part that’s about to melt your brain: the one-year projection — 31.68 billion XRP removed from the liquid supply.
These figures highlight how ETF purchases could progressively deplete XRP available on exchanges, leaving a significantly reduced supply for regular traders.
Current Liquidity Concerns
The current liquid supply of XRP on exchanges is notably limited. Bull Winkle pointed out the critical situation:
And here’s the kicker: there’s only about 3 to 3.5 billion XRP liquid on exchanges right now. So what happens when the ETFs try to buy 132 million XRP per day and there’s basically nothing left to buy? Price doesn’t go up slowly. Price doesn’t grind. Price goes violently because buyers are bidding against each other with no sellers left.
This scarcity of liquidity means that strong ETF demand could lead to rapid and significant price surges, rather than gradual appreciation.
Price Implications
If ETFs continue their daily buying activity and the supply remains constrained, XRP's price could experience a dramatic increase. Bull Winkle anticipates that price movements will be dictated by real-time supply and demand dynamics, rather than speculative trading.
Under these conditions, XRP's price has the potential to reach triple digits or even approach $200, driven by the convergence of institutional buying pressure and severely limited supply.
Risks and Considerations
These projections are based on the assumption that ETFs will purchase XRP directly from exchanges daily. It is possible that some acquisitions may occur through over-the-counter (OTC) trades, which could lessen immediate pressure on exchange liquidity.
Furthermore, XRP that is withdrawn from circulation might not remain permanently off the market. Future sales by ETF holders could potentially moderate extreme price spikes. Nevertheless, the potential for an ETF-driven liquidity squeeze remains a significant factor to consider.
Ripple Bull Winkle's analysis outlines a unique market scenario where substantial ETF demand, coupled with a shrinking supply on exchanges, could result in a historic liquidity squeeze.
Investors should be aware of the potential for XRP prices to surge towards $200 if these conditions materialize. This scenario is characterized as a real-time supply-and-demand event, distinct from speculative hype.