Decreasing Exchange Balances
The amount of Ether held on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges has reached unprecedented lows, raising speculations of a forthcoming supply squeeze that could propel prices higher.
According to data from Glassnode, ETH exchange balances plummeted to just 8.7% last Thursday—their lowest since the network’s inception in mid-2015. As of Sunday, holdings remained low at 8.8%, marking a significant reduction of 43% since early July. This decline coincided with increased activity from digital asset treasuries, which have been ramping up ETH purchases, indicating institutional interest in accumulating the asset.
Market analysts note that ETH is now entering its tightest supply environment ever, with reports from macro investment insights firm “Milk Road” highlighting this as “a level we’ve never seen before.” In comparison, Bitcoin’s exchange-held supply remains higher at approximately 14.7%, according to Glassnode data.
Much of ETH’s supply has been locked into various protocols and services, including staking, restaking, Layer-2 solutions, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), collateral loops, and long-term custody arrangements. This trend suggests diminished availabilities on exchanges, which could foster a supply squeeze and drive price momentum upward.
“Sentiment feels heavy right now, but sentiment doesn’t dictate supply. ETH supply is tightening in the background while the market decides its next move. When that gap closes, price follows.”
Technical Indicators Point to Buying Pressure
Crypto analyst “Sykodelic” pointed out a breakout in On-Balance Volume (OBV), a volume-based indicator, which surpassed resistance levels, signaling underlying buying strength. Although the price faced rejection following this move, the divergence suggests hidden bullish conviction that could precede upward price action.
“This is a sign of buying strength, and typically, the price will follow. Nothing is guaranteed with indicators, but I have found that OBV tends to be one of the most reliable leading indicators.”
With overall market sentiment remaining cautious, but the technical outlook pointing to potential gains, many believe that ETH is poised for a move higher before any significant correction. Market observers highlight that the current bullish signals, combined with disciplined accumulation from institutional holders, could set the stage for a notable rally.
Price Action and Market Support
Over the past week, Ether has predominantly traded above the $3,000 mark, failing to decisively challenge resistance at $3,200. As of recent trading sessions, ETH is consolidating around $3,050, reflecting a cautiously optimistic stance among traders.
The ETH/BTC trading pair also garnered attention last week as it broke above a prolonged downtrend line, a bullish technical development that further supports the narrative of renewed strength in Ethereum’s market outlook.