The Bitcoin futures-to-spot basis has fallen into negative territory, signaling a significant shift in trader sentiment toward de-risking. Futures are now trading below the spot price for the first time since March 2025, erasing the premium that typically reflects strong demand for leverage.
This transition into a futures discount phase suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) traders are increasingly unwilling to take on risk, instead pricing BTC’s short-term outlook lower.
Bitcoin Futures-Spot Basis Signals Divergent Market Conditions
A negative basis often emerges during periods of position unwinding or when markets are preparing for volatility. Bitcoin is currently trading within the “Base Zone,” a range associated with heavier selling pressure or reduced exposure. Both the seven-day and 30-day moving averages are trending downward, confirming a bearish tilt in the futures market.
However, the historical pattern complicates the picture. Since August 2023, every instance of the seven-day SMA turning negative has coincided with a bottom-formation range during bull phases. If the market has not fully transitioned into a bear cycle, this could again serve as an early recovery marker.
If conditions resemble those of January 2022, the signal may instead mark the beginning of a deeper downturn. A return above the 0%-0.5% basis range would be the first sign of renewed confidence.
Data also showed the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio resetting toward 0.3, signaling that the market’s previously overheated leverage from Q2–Q3 has finally cooled. A lower ratio reflects reduced forced-liquidation risk and a healthier futures structure.
If bullish momentum returns, this cleaner leverage backdrop could act as a positive catalyst by giving traders room to re-risk without the fragility seen earlier in the year.
Search for Bitcoin Bottom Continues
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay stated that the exchange's in-house flow adds further weight to the current downside narrative. This metric measures the volume of BTC moved between internal exchange wallets, typically for operational purposes or liquidity balancing. While not a direct measure of selling, sharp spikes often coincide with turbulent periods and major shifts by large players.
From late 2024 to early 2025, the market experienced massive internal-transfer spikes during rapid price rallies, followed by steep corrections. The pattern repeated in May–June 2025 as BTC climbed from $60,000 to $90,000, validating its bullish correlation.
Now, the metric has surged again, rising far above its usual 5–10 range in early November. This spike aligned with BTC’s sharp decline from above $110,000 to $95,000. Historically, such surges reflect liquidity stress, heightened volatility, and pressure on price.
Given the combination of negative basis, rising internal flows, and accelerating downside momentum, BTC appears poised to continue searching for a bottom.