Pundit: People May Think This XRP ETF Chart Is Bad

When investors first glance at the spot XRP ETF (XRPC) chart, they may assume the launch was underwhelming. The candle patterns on day one do look cautious, and XRP’s price did not explode on opening. But that narrative misses a critical, powerful point lurking underneath the surface.

Vincent Kennedy highlighted a fact that flips the pessimistic reading: XRPC recorded $58 million in first-day trading volume, according to his post. That figure makes it the strongest ETF debut of 2025, narrowly surpassing Bitwise’s Solana ETF, which saw $57 million on its first day.

How ETF Mechanics Drive Demand

To understand why this volume matters, it helps to review how spot ETFs work. When investors bid for ETF shares, authorized participants (APs) step in. They create or redeem shares by delivering—or receiving—the underlying asset, in this case, XRP.

That means net creation forces the sponsor to buy XRP on the open market, or deliver it in-kind from custody. On day one, that process likely translated the huge inflows into substantial spot demand.

Price Action Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

Even though XRP’s price closed lower that day, such a drop isn’t surprising under these dynamics. Some capital flows may come from market makers hedging or from APs doing arbitrage.

These players cushion the price, which can mute volatility even as the ETF builds up its XRP reserves. In short, strength in structural demand need not always manifest as a sharp upward move.

Replenishment Pressure Is Real

Kennedy’s key insight is this: the fund now needs to replenish its XRP basket, which could require tens of millions in fresh XRP purchases. That replenishment triggers more demand from the open market.

Over time, this mechanical demand may outlast the debut-day buzz and become a consistent tailwind for XRP.

What to Monitor Going Forward

Investors should now watch for several critical signals. One is the creation-redemption data—how many ETF shares are being issued or redeemed. Another is on-chain transfers to custodian addresses, which could show where the ETF is accumulating. Finally, trackers of ETF holdings disclosures will shed light on how much XRP the fund actually holds.

In conclusion, at first glance, the XRPC chart might look modest. But as Vincent Kennedy rightly argued, the $58 million launch volume is not just symbolic — it reflects real, deep demand backed by ETF mechanics.

The real story is not the shape of day-one candles, but the ongoing structural demand that could follow. Investors and analysts who dig past the surface may well find that this ETF debut is a strong foundation, not a false start.