Market Sentiment and Investment Flows
Bitcoin's recent price decline has led to three consecutive weeks of outflows from crypto Exchange Traded Products (ETPs), signaling a negative sentiment in the market. In the past week alone, outflows reached $2 billion, marking the largest weekly outflows since February. This trend, totaling $3.2 billion over three weeks, indicates a need for sustained buying pressure into crypto ETPs to initiate a meaningful recovery.
While some analysts suggest the market may be nearing a bottom, with Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley noting that BTC's bear market of the past six months is nearing its end and that the setup for crypto has "never been stronger," caution remains. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment advised that true market bottoms often form when the majority anticipates further price declines, rather than when there is a consensus about a specific bottom.
The current market conditions show that several altcoins are struggling to initiate rebounds, reflecting a lack of demand from buyers. Traders are closely observing these investment products for signs of a shift in sentiment.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a period of indecision between buyers and sellers.
A breakdown below the support line of this triangle would signal the start of a deeper correction, potentially targeting 6,550 and then 6,400. The pattern's target objective following a break from the triangle is 6,276. Conversely, a sustained move higher and a break above the resistance line would indicate a resumption of the uptrend, with potential rallies towards 7,000 and a target objective of 7,220.
US Dollar Index Price Analysis
The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a downturn from the 100.50 overhead resistance level on November 5th. However, it is currently finding support at the 20-day exponential moving average, which is at 99.32.
A strong rebound from the 20-day EMA would increase the probability of breaking above the 100.50 level. Following such a break, the index could advance to the 102 level, where significant selling pressure is anticipated. For sellers to gain the upper hand, they would need to pull the price below the 50-day simple moving average at 98.57. A successful breach of this level could lead to consolidation between 100.50 and 96.21 for an extended period.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to establish support at the $93,000 level, but the current lack of a robust rebound suggests that selling pressure from bears remains significant.
Any recovery attempt is likely to encounter resistance at the psychological $100,000 level. A downturn from this price point would indicate that bears have successfully re-established this level as resistance, increasing the risk of a decline to $87,800 and subsequently to $83,000. The bulls are under pressure to drive the Bitcoin price above the 20-day EMA at $102,022 to mitigate bearish momentum. A successful move above this level could lead to a climb towards the 50-day SMA at $109,927.
Ether Price Analysis
Ether (ETH) has been trading below the $3,350 breakdown level, but sellers have not yet managed to push the price below $3,000.
The ETH/USDT pair could see a recovery towards the 20-day EMA at $3,444, where aggressive selling is expected. A sharp reversal from this level would increase the risk of a breakdown below $3,000, potentially leading to a plunge in Ether's price to $2,500. Conversely, if buyers manage to push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair might rally towards the 50-day SMA at $3,871. A close above the 50-day SMA would suggest the end of the corrective phase.
XRP Price Analysis
XRP has been declining within a descending channel pattern, indicating continued selling pressure on rallies by bears.
Minor support is observed at $2.15. If this level fails, the XRP/USDT pair could fall to the support line of the channel. Buyers are expected to defend this support line vigorously, as a break below it could lead to a decline to $1.61. On the upside, a break and close above the 50-day SMA at $2.52 would signal an attempt by bulls to regain control. A short-term trend change would be confirmed upon achieving a close above the downtrend line.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB is attempting to maintain its position above the $860 level, but recovery attempts are expected to face selling pressure at the 20-day EMA, which is currently at $983.
If the price reverses sharply from the 20-day EMA, bears will likely attempt to push the BNB/USDT pair below the $860 level. A successful breach of this support could lead to a significant drop to $730. Conversely, if the price moves upward and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it would suggest a reduction in selling pressure. The pair could then ascend to the 50-day SMA at $1,082.
Solana Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) has been gradually declining towards the significant support level at $126, indicating that bears maintain control of the market.
Any attempt at recovery is expected to encounter selling pressure at the 20-day EMA, located at $159. A sharp downturn from this level would increase the risk of a breakdown below $126, potentially causing the Solana price to fall to $95. If, however, the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it would signal strong demand at lower levels. The SOL/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA at $186, where bears are anticipated to re-enter the market.
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting to find support near $0.15, but bulls are struggling to initiate a strong recovery.
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA at $0.17, the probability of a drop to $0.14 increases. Buyers are expected to defend the $0.14 level strongly, as a breach below it could lead to a significant decline in Dogecoin's price to $0.10. Conversely, a break and close above the 20-day EMA would suggest that selling pressure is diminishing near $0.14. The DOGE/USDT pair might then rally to the 50-day SMA at $0.19, indicating a potential extension of its stay within the $0.14 to $0.29 range.
Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) dipped below the $0.50 support level on Friday, indicating that bears are currently in control.
Bulls are making an effort to push the Cardano price back above the $0.50 breakdown level. If successful, the ADA/USDT pair could ascend to the 20-day EMA at $0.55. Sellers are likely to resist the recovery at this level, potentially leading bears to extend the decline to $0.40. A minor positive development for the bulls is the RSI's attempt to form a positive divergence, suggesting a reduction in selling pressure. If buyers clear the hurdle at the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally towards the 50-day SMA at $0.65.
Hyperliquid Price Analysis
Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been trading within a narrow range between the 50-day SMA at $41.78 and the $35.50 support for the past several days.
This tight-range trading is expected to result in a range expansion, though the direction of the breakout remains uncertain. If the price breaks above the 50-day SMA, the HYPE/USDT pair could surge towards $52. Conversely, a drop below $35.50 would signal that bears have overcome buyers, potentially accelerating selling and causing the Hyperliquid price to fall to $30.50 and subsequently to $28.