Key Takeaways
- •White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair.
- •Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show Hassett's probability of nomination rising, with over $9 million in wagers.
- •Hassett, who has a disclosed stake in Coinbase, is perceived as more dovish than current Fed leadership, favoring faster interest rate cuts.
Prediction Market Data Favors the Dovish Candidate
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has surged ahead as the top candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), a position whose term expires in May 2026. This speculation, fueled by reports that President Donald Trump views Hassett as an ally who shares his approach to lowering interest rates, has been reflected immediately across major decentralized prediction markets.
According to data compiled from prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, bets on the Fed Chair pick have swelled to more than $9 million. Kalshi data shows a 55% probability that Hassett will be the final pick, placing him ahead of other potential candidates, including former Fed official Kevin Warsh and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
BREAKING: KEVIN HASSETT FED CHAIR ODDS SPIKING. pic.twitter.com/bw9FLKoeXV
— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) November 30, 2025
Hassett, a former senior economist at the Federal Reserve Board, has recently been pushing for faster, more aggressive interest rate cuts, an approach that aligns closely with the president’s stance. That puts him on the more dovish end of the spectrum compared to the Fed’s current leadership. His rise as a frontrunner suggests a potential shift toward a more pro-growth, accommodative monetary policy, in contrast to the Fed’s recent focus on inflation control.
The Market Prices in Succession Over Disruption
Prediction markets have decisively pivoted to Kevin Hassett as the frontrunner for the next Fed Chair, signalling an intense market anticipation of a pro-growth, crypto-friendly regime change. This trend represents the strategic resolution of tensions highlighted in April 2025, when President Trump clarified he had “no plans” to fire Jerome Powell prematurely, despite his vocal “interest rate concerns” and frustrations with the Fed’s pace.
While Trump chose to respect the institutional stability of Powell’s term until May 2026, the surge in bets for Hassett suggests investors are now pricing in the definitive delivery of Trump’s economic vision, aggressive rate cuts and accommodation via orderly succession rather than the earlier feared termination.