Prediction markets are setting fresh records. This week, daily trading volumes on major prediction-market platforms surpassed $2 billion, according to Dune Analytics. Both trading volumes and user numbers are rising, reflecting accelerating interest in crypto betting, web3 sports betting, and bitcoin betting on smart contract-based prediction platforms.
The Accuracy of Collective Knowledge
Prediction markets and betting platforms aggregate collective knowledge, being often more accurate than traditional polls or expert forecasts. As noted by Alex Tabarrok, professor of economics at George Mason University, on the a16z crypto podcast:
“They tend to be better than complicated statistical models… They tend to be better than polls, or at least as good. And there’s one reason for that: in making bets on the prediction market, I push the prediction market closer to the truth!”
Web3 infrastructure enhances this trend by tokenizing events themselves, making them tradable on decentralized betting platforms and bitcoin sportsbooks. Users can engage in online betting with cryptocurrency, esport betting, or sport betting, often without intermediaries, creating decentralized sports betting ecosystems with global accessibility.
Dominant Markets and Key Drivers
The most popular topics remain politics and sports. Last week, political markets recorded $322.6 million in trading volume, while sports markets reached $414.7 million.
“Sports and politics are the most emotionally charged topics. People care deeply about their teams and elections as if they were personal, and they want to test how accurate their intuition is. These are constant news-makers, with clear outcomes — victory or defeat — making them perfect for betting and prediction markets,” says Vladislav Petkevich, UBO of Dexsport, an esport crypto betting platform.
Decentralization and reduced barriers to entry are key drivers. Platforms like Polymarket and other crypto bookmakers remove intermediaries. Everything operates on blockchain smart contracts. Participants can bet anonymously and globally, bypassing banks, brokers, or licenses. This opens markets to users in regions where traditional betting or financial systems are restricted.
Future Growth Projections
Industry reports project strong growth for prediction crypto markets. The decentralized prediction markets industry could expand from roughly $1.4 billion in 2024 to $95.5 billion by 2035, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 46.8%.