Shifting Odds on Trump's Tariff Authority
Traders on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly lowering the odds that the Supreme Court of the US will rule in favor of Trump’s sweeping tariff powers. Kalshi’s odds for a yes ruling dropped to 28%, while Polymarket’s fell to 25%.
The total amount of money traded on both platforms surpassed $1.3 million, showing that the betting activity on these sites can give an early signal of how people feel about upcoming political and court decisions.
- •Kalshi odds on SCOTUS upholding Trump’s emergency tariffs fell to about 28%, while Polymarket slid to 25% after the Nov. 5 hearing.
- •Justices in both blocs questioned whether the 1977 IEEPA even lets a president create tariffs, a power traditionally held by Congress.
- •A loss for Trump would ease trade-war fears and could rotate capital back to stocks, softening crypto’s recent “tariff hedge” bid.
Supreme Court's Skepticism on IEEPA
During a recent hearing, justices in both liberal and conservative blocs questioned whether the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) actually grants a president the authority to create tariffs, a power that has historically resided with Congress.
Potential Market Impact of a Ruling
A ruling against Trump’s tariff powers could significantly ease trade-war concerns. This shift might lead to capital rotating back into the stock market, potentially diminishing the recent “tariff hedge” bid that has influenced cryptocurrency markets.