Key Indicators Signal Potential Price Bottom
Short-term holder SOPR has fallen below 1, indicating widespread capitulation and a potential price bottom for Bitcoin. This metric, which tracks whether recently acquired coins are sold at a profit or loss, has dipped below the crucial 1.0 mark for the first time in months. The accompanying on-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests a period of desperation among short-term holders.
Historical Patterns Suggest a Rebound
The current situation echoes patterns observed during previous Bitcoin price bottoms. For those unfamiliar, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders (defined as those holding BTC for less than 155 days) serves as a sentiment indicator. When SOPR exceeds 1, traders are realizing profits, often contributing to market rallies. Conversely, a decline below 1 signifies that sellers are incurring losses, which can lead to the "shaking out" of weaker hands and potentially pave the way for stronger bullish momentum.
A chart from CryptoQuant, covering the period from early 2023 to September 2025, clearly illustrates this dynamic. The blue line, representing STH SOPR, moves in tandem with Bitcoin's price (shown in orange). Red circles on the chart highlight previous capitulation zones, including the bear market bottom in 2022, a correction in mid-2024, and the recent dip in late 2025. Historically, these moments of significant selling pressure have often preceded substantial price increases.
$80,000 Support: A Critical Level
Following the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin experienced a significant rally from below $20,000 to over $70,000 within a year. Similarly, the capitulation event in 2024 was followed by a rapid 30% price surge. The current scenario appears to mirror this historical playbook. Short-term speculators, who may have been attracted by the post-halving enthusiasm, are now facing pressure from macroeconomic factors such as persistent inflation and regulatory concerns. On-chain data indicates an increase in Bitcoin transfers to exchanges, further amplifying the selling sentiment.
However, as CryptoQuant analyst @DanCoinInvestor noted, "Short-term holders have surrendered, but… In the short term, a rebound is highly likely." This optimism is supported by the idea that the current trough in the SOPR metric may represent exhaustion selling, which often precedes relief rallies. The $80,000 level is identified as a crucial psychological and technical support zone. If Bitcoin can maintain its position above this threshold, a short-term rebound toward $100,000 by year-end is considered probable, potentially driven by institutional inflows through ETFs and seasonal market trends.
Long-Term Holders Remain Steadfast Amidst Short-Term Volatility
In contrast to the short-term panic, long-term holders appear to be remaining calm. Their SOPR remains above 1, and accumulation metrics show consistent net inflows, indicating continued confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects. This sustained buying pressure from long-term holders could provide a solid foundation for a potential recovery.
Conversely, a decisive breach below the $80,000 support level could trigger cascading liquidations, potentially leading to a more challenging period for Bitcoin, as warned by the analyst. Such a scenario could see the price test the $70,000 mark, reigniting fears of a prolonged correction within a market that is still maturing. Traders are advised to closely monitor trading volumes and funding rates, as a surge in bullish derivatives activity could serve as confirmation of a rebound thesis.
For all participants in the cryptocurrency market, this period of capitulation serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's inherent volatility. While short-term pain may be evident, the path to new all-time highs could emerge if key support levels hold firm. In the dynamic landscape of digital assets, today's sellers might find themselves as spectators on the sidelines during future rallies.