Jerome Powell’s remarks after today’s FOMC meeting are poised to overshadow the rate decision itself.
Markets have already priced in a quarter-point cut with near certainty, leaving investors focused on Powell’s forward guidance and the message the Federal Reserve wants to deliver about the path ahead. With the economy showing mixed signals and limited data available after the government shutdown, the press conference is expected to drive far more volatility than the policy move.
Markets Expect the Cut – The Guidance Is the Real Catalyst
A 25-basis-point cut has a roughly 90 percent probability, according to futures markets. Because this outcome has been anticipated for weeks, traders do not expect a dramatic reaction when the decision is published.
The real driver will be the updated Summary of Economic Projections, especially the dot plot that outlines each policymaker’s expectations for the coming years. Any shift in the 2026 median forecast, which previously showed only one cut, could unsettle markets that are searching for clarity on how aggressively the Fed intends to ease next year.
Investors will also watch for signs of division within the committee. A growing number of dissenting votes would reveal internal pressure on Powell and potentially signal deeper uncertainty about the economy’s direction.
Powell’s Message Could Reshape Expectations for Early 2026
Powell’s tone at the 2:30 p.m. press conference carries outsized importance. His comments will guide traders on whether to expect additional cuts as early as January or whether the Fed intends to pause while it evaluates fresh economic data. With the recent shutdown delaying several key reports, the market is operating with less visibility than usual, making Powell’s explanations even more influential than typical post-meeting remarks.
Another potential catalyst is the possibility of an announcement related to short-term Treasury operations. Some analysts believe Powell could outline details on purchasing an estimated $45 billion in short-dated Treasuries. Such a move would increase system liquidity and encourage greater risk-taking across equities and cryptocurrencies.
Economic Conditions Place Extra Weight on Powell’s Tone
The Fed faces a delicate balance between inflation that remains above target and a labor market that is beginning to soften. Inflation stood at 3 percent in November, a level that allows room for caution but still sits above the Fed’s preferred range. Meanwhile, employment data has weakened enough to convince several policymakers that easing is appropriate.
This intersection of cooling growth, elevated inflation, and limited incoming data makes Powell’s communication crucial for setting expectations through 2026. His term as chair expires in May of that year, adding another layer of uncertainty for long-term policy direction. Markets will therefore interpret today’s language as a blueprint for the period ahead, shaping sentiment well beyond this single meeting.