Intercontinental Exchange has invested $2 billion in cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket, valuing the company at $9 billion post‑money according to an announcement Tuesday. ICE, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, represents the latest traditional finance entity to back blockchain‑enabled prediction platforms.
The investment marks a significant bridge between conventional financial infrastructure and crypto‑native prediction markets as regulatory frameworks evolve. ICE's NYSE is the world's largest stock exchange by market capitalization, exceeding $25 trillion as of July 2024. The deal follows months of fundraising discussions, with reports in September indicating Polymarket was considering a financing round at similar valuations.
- •Polymarket operates a Polygon‑based platform where users trade on real‑world event outcomes by purchasing yes‑or‑no shares priced between $0 and $1. Winning shares settle at $1 USDC upon resolution of each market. The platform covers politics, macroeconomics, cryptocurrency and cultural events, functioning as a high‑frequency barometer for rapidly developing news stories.
The company has been preparing for broader United States rollout after acquiring derivatives venue QCEX for $112 million in July. The platform expanded its product offerings since the acquisition, launching company earnings forecasting markets and recently adding Bitcoin deposits to broaden funding options. Access for US users has been restricted due to regulatory constraints, though that situation appears poised to change.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a no‑action letter to QCEX in early September, granting Polymarket relief from certain federal reporting and record‑keeping requirements. This regulatory stance represents a notable shift from prior years when the CFTC issued a cease‑and‑desist order against Polymarket in early 2022. The Federal Bureau of Investigation raided CEO Shayne Coplan's home in mid‑November 2024, seizing electronics.
Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board in late August following a strategic investment from 1789 Capital. The financial details remain unclear, though estimates suggest the investment reached double‑digit millions of dollars. The move reflects Polymarket's efforts to strengthen political connections as it navigates the regulatory landscape for prediction markets.
ICE's backing provides substantial credibility as Polymarket pushes to establish a US presence in competition with regulated platforms like Kalshi. Rival Kalshi was reportedly close to raising funds at approximately $5 billion valuation in September. The competitive landscape for prediction markets is intensifying as multiple platforms vie for market share in the emerging sector.
Trades on Polymarket typically settle in stablecoins, with market prices reflecting crowd‑sourced probability assessments for each event. Markets resolve against predefined, verifiable sources to ensure objective outcomes. The platform has become increasingly popular for tracking election odds, sports outcomes and cryptocurrency price movements in real time.