Shayne Coplan, the founder of prediction market Polymarket, is once again in the limelight, as prediction markets shift from regulatory bans in the United States to legitimate financial markets with institutional backing.
Bloomberg named Coplan among the world’s billionaires following a $2 billion investment in Polymarket by New York Stock Exchange parent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Coplan launched the platform in 2020 when he was 21 after dropping out of New York University. He often worked on the platform from the bathroom in his New York apartment, he said.
Before launching Polymarket, Coplan was working on a crypto staking platform called Union, which had secured venture capital funding, and had also worked on several smaller crypto‑related projects while still in school. He wrote in an X post:
“At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out, and nothing to show for it, but I knew we were entering an era where ways to find truth would matter more than ever.”
The inspiration to launch Polymarket came from reading the work of economist Robin Hanson, who pioneered academic research on prediction markets, Coplan added.
The deal makes Coplan the youngest self‑made billionaire tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Polymarket defies odds to become $9 billion business
Following the $2 billion ICE deal, Polymarket is valued at $9 billion, but the company was considered a long‑shot bet in earlier years when regulators in the United States took aim at the crypto industry.
The platform was banned for US users in 2022 after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million for acting as an unregulated exchange.
Prediction markets, including Polymarket and rival Kalshi, captured headlines and narrative attention during the 2024 US presidential election.
Polymarket traders accurately called the election in favor of US President Donald Trump about a month ahead of the election, placing his odds of winning as high as 67%.
Coplan’s apartment was raided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in November 2024 after the outcome of the 2024 US elections, on suspicion that the prediction market was serving US customers.
Polymarket spokespeople characterized the FBI investigation and the raid as “politically motivated” in a statement to Cointelegraph at the time.
“The incumbents should do some self‑reflection and recognize that taking a more pro‑business, pro‑startup approach may be what would have changed their fate this election,” Coplan said in response to the FBI raid.
Polymarket’s fortunes changed after the regulatory pivot in the US since the election of Donald Trump. The company received CFTC approval to serve US customers again in September 2025.