Polymarket Bets on December Rate Cut with 93% Confidence

Polymarket users are showing overwhelming confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its upcoming December meeting. With just five days left until the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision, traders are placing a 93% probability on a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut.

This surge in betting sentiment reflects growing expectations that the Fed may begin easing monetary policy after a period of aggressive tightening to combat inflation.

What’s Driving the Prediction?

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, allows users to speculate on real-world events using crypto. The sharp rise to 93% for a December rate cut suggests that traders believe inflation has cooled enough for the Fed to consider loosening its stance.

Several factors are influencing these expectations:

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  Recent economic data showing slowing inflation and labor market moderation.
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  Market anticipation that the Fed wants to avoid over-tightening as risks of recession linger.
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  A broader trend of dovish shifts among central banks globally.

While the Fed hasn’t clearly signaled an imminent cut, traders are reading between the lines, noting softer language in recent Fed communications.

All Eyes on the FOMC

The FOMC meeting, scheduled in just five days, will provide critical insights into the Fed’s view on inflation, growth, and interest rates going into 2026. If the rate cut happens, it could signal the start of a policy pivot — a moment markets have been waiting for.

Until then, platforms like Polymarket offer a real-time gauge of public sentiment, often moving faster than traditional forecasts.