Bitcoin’s Cyclical Pattern Suggests a Market Peak
Brandt’s outlook is based on his long‑observed theory that Bitcoin’s price cycles display a consistent symmetry. According to him, the time from each cycle low to halving often mirrors the duration from halving to the cycle peak.
- •The most recent cycle low occurred on November 9, 2022, marking 533 days before the April 20, 2024 halving.
- •Adding the same 533‑day period from the halving date projects the potential cycle peak window to fall around this week.
- •Notably, Bitcoin reached a new all‑time high above $126,100 just after that predicted window.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $122,070, reflecting an increase of approximately 9.74% over the previous 30 days.
The “Except” A Warning for Traders
While historical patterns appear strong, Brandt cautions that markets often deviate sharply from cyclical expectations.
“There is always an ‘except.’ Trends that violate the prevailing cyclic or seasonal nature of markets are typically the most dramatic,” Brandt noted.
He pointed out that Bitcoin has followed his cyclical model “three‑for‑three” in previous bull runs. However, he also admitted that the current cycle could diverge due to new market dynamics and institutional involvement.
Brandt maintains a balanced outlook: he remains bullish but estimates a 50/50 chance that Bitcoin’s cycle pattern will continue as before. Should it hold, he projects a potential upside target between $150,000 and $185,000.
The Debate Over Bitcoin’s Four‑Year Cycle
Brandt’s remarks reignite the ongoing discussion over whether Bitcoin’s traditional four‑year cycle remains valid in the modern crypto landscape, where institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and corporate treasuries now play major roles.
Other prominent market watchers have weighed in with varying views:
- •Rekt Capital suggested in July that if Bitcoin’s current trajectory mirrors the 2020 cycle, a new market peak could form by October.
- •Saad Ahmed, head of APAC at Gemini, argued that cycles may be more about investor psychology than time‑based mathematical structure, describing them as emotional expansions followed by corrections.
- •Economist Timothy Peterson estimated a 50% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $140,000 before the end of the month based on historical modeling.
- •Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett remain highly bullish, forecasting that Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if macroeconomic conditions align.
Final Outlook
Brandt’s cyclical model has accurately called previous Bitcoin peaks, but the veteran trader admits uncertainty this time. Whether the cycle repeats or breaks could determine if Bitcoin consolidates near current highs — or enters a far more volatile and powerful phase ahead.