Jensen Huang’s Nvidia, currently the most valuable company globally, has experienced significant volatility on Wall Street in recent weeks, leading to investor concern.
The NVDA stock has seen a 2.6% decline in 2026 year-to-date. While it remains up 38% over the past year, its performance has lagged behind other companies in the artificial intelligence sector.
This trend persists despite continuous announcements of new products and advancements emerging from Nvidia's development pipeline. Earlier in the year, reports indicated that Nvidia launched its Vera Rubin platform at CES, highlighted strong demand, and has been actively promoting new AI products.
The fourth quarter earnings season has commenced, with Nvidia's earnings report anticipated on February 26th.
Investor Sentiment and Analyst Outlook on Nvidia's Stock
Veteran tech analyst Paul Meeks from Freedom Capital Markets maintains a strong conviction in Nvidia, projecting the stock to reach $250 per share within the next two years. He advises individuals not currently holding the stock to consider initiating purchases.
Meeks suggested that significant growth catalysts could include Nvidia securing deals with companies outside the technology sector, such as General Motors or Johnson & Johnson, as well as the anticipated artificial intelligence capital expenditure plans for 2026 from major cloud providers.
Chris Caso, an analyst at Wolfe Research, also regards Nvidia as a leading player in the AI space, referring to it as his "favorite AI idea." He highlighted the advancements of the Vera Rubin platform over previous Blackwell chips, noting that these technological improvements enable Nvidia to maintain its pricing power and protect its profit margins.
However, Caso attributed the recent stock slump to three primary factors: the delayed launch of Blackwell chips, concerns regarding the sustainability of AI spending, and the potential for Nvidia to face competition from custom AI chips developed in-house by major technology firms.
Market Rotation and Analyst Support for Nvidia
Hank Smith, head of strategy at Haverford Trust, stated that Nvidia's current weakness does not indicate that any other company is poised to surpass it in the near future. Smith is anticipating a stock correction to the range of $150 to $160, at which point he expects a substantial influx of buyers, both retail and institutional, to "rapidly buy the dip."
Smith further commented that Nvidia is currently trading at approximately 25–27 times forward earnings, a valuation he considers to be no longer in "nosebleed territory."
Despite the market pressures, some analysts remain steadfast in their positive outlook. On Wednesday, as NVDA fell an additional 2%, analysts reinforced their bullish stances. Tristan Gerra at Baird identified Nvidia as one of his top investment ideas for 2026, citing its comparatively low valuation relative to other AI companies and its dominant position in AI data centers. He established a price target of $275, asserting that Nvidia faces no significant competition in the medium term.
Gerra also dismissed the notion that Nvidia's market share will decline as inferencing becomes more prevalent. He wrote, "Hyperscalers own their custom chip designs, but Nvidia owns all of its own IP." He considers this ownership of intellectual property to be a substantial competitive advantage.
Stacy Rasgon at Bernstein also named Nvidia a top pick this week. He pointed to consistent AI spending and a stock price that is now considerably more reasonable compared to its peak during the initial surge of hype. Rasgon described the current valuation as "extremely attractive" given Nvidia's scale and its technological pipeline.
Comparative Performance in the AI Sector
Data from TradingView indicates that Sundar Pichai's Alphabet has surged by 77% year-to-date, Lisa Su's AMD has seen an impressive 91% increase, and even Hocky Tan's Broadcom has gained 51%, all outperforming Nvidia's recent performance.