NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading near $187–$189, holding firm after a volatile session as Wall Street sharpens its 2026 outlook around AI infrastructure demand.
The stock’s resilience comes as analysts point to accelerating orders for Nvidia’s Blackwell platform, a massive backlog exceeding $500 billion, and a powerful upstream signal from its key manufacturing partner.
RBC Calls NVDA a “Perfect Opportunity”
RBC Capital Markets recently initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $240 price target, implying roughly 28% upside from current levels.
RBC’s thesis rests on three pillars:
- •Sustained cloud spending: Hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet are expected to keep capital expenditures elevated for the next 12–18 months as competition in AI intensifies.
- •Relative valuation: NVDA is cited as trading at roughly a 20% discount to semiconductor peers and large-cap tech, despite its dominant AI positioning.
- •Inference tailwinds: Rapid growth in AI inference workloads and expanding enterprise adoption are expected to offset any moderation in broader infrastructure spending.
Competition Rises, But Dominance Holds
Analysts acknowledge growing competition from custom ASICs and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), yet expect Nvidia to maintain a commanding lead.
- •Market share outlook: Nvidia’s share of the AI accelerator market is projected to ease from about 80% to 70% by 2027 as customers diversify.
- •Second-source dynamic: AMD is expected to secure at least 10% share by the end of the decade, viewed as a credible alternative rather than a displacement threat.
The “TSMC Effect” Reinforces the AI Thesis
A major catalyst arrived on January 15, 2026, when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) announced plans to raise 2026 capital expenditures to $52–$56 billion, up sharply from $41 billion in 2025.
Wall Street interprets the 30%+ capex increase as confirmation that the AI boom is structural, not cyclical. Expanded capacity at TSMC is also expected to ease the supply constraints that limited Nvidia’s shipments through much of 2025.
Financial Trajectory Into 2026
Looking ahead, analysts are modeling a powerful earnings profile:
- •Quarterly revenue: Near $65 billion for upcoming quarters.
- •Fiscal 2026 EPS: Projected to climb 50.5% year over year to approximately $4.41.
- •Product cycle: The ramp of advanced 3nm manufacturing supports a smooth launch of Nvidia’s next-generation “Vera Rubin” architecture later this year.
Bottom line: With Blackwell demand surging, hyperscaler spending holding firm, and TSMC signaling long-term AI investment, Nvidia’s pullbacks near $188 are increasingly viewed as strategic entry points rather than warning signs heading into 2026.