Norwegian authorities have launched an investigation into a potential information leak following suspicious trading activity on the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket just hours before the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement.
The probe centers on an unusual surge in bets favoring Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who went on to win the prize for her leadership in defending democracy. According to Bloomberg, wagers on Machado spiked dramatically ahead of the official announcement, raising concerns that confidential information from the Nobel Committee may have been accessed or shared illicitly.
The Norwegian Nobel Institute confirmed that it is cooperating with investigators to determine whether internal data was compromised. “We take this very seriously,” said Kristian Berg Harpviken, the Institute’s director. “It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.”
Data from Polymarket shows that a trader under the alias “dirtycup” staked nearly $70,000 on Machado’s victory, netting roughly $30,000 in profit. Two additional accounts, both recently created, earned a combined $90,000 from identical bets, none of them having prior betting histories.
While the Nobel Peace Prize selection process is known for its secrecy, sources familiar with the timeline revealed that the committee’s decision had been finalized several days earlier, aligning closely with the spike in wagers.
The investigation now focuses on whether sensitive information was leaked from within the Nobel apparatus or through external digital surveillance. Officials emphasized that confidentiality safeguards will be reviewed and strengthened to prevent similar breaches in future prize deliberations.