Norwegian officials are examining whether advance information about this year’s Nobel Peace Prize was leaked after a series of well-timed trades on the prediction market Polymarket. The inquiry follows unusually profitable wagers placed hours before the prize was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.
“We’re looking into it,” Nobel Institute spokesperson Erik Aasheim told reporters in Oslo, confirming that the committee had been alerted to the trading activity. Local newspapers Aftenposten and Finansavisen first reported the investigation, later picked up by The Strait News.
Spike in Bets Before the Announcement
Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for her efforts to promote democracy and human rights in Venezuela. In the hours before the announcement, at least three Polymarket users placed large bets predicting her victory, shifting odds sharply in her favor. The sudden surge upended what had been a tight contest between front-runners including Russian activist Yulia Navalnaya, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Pope Leo XIV.
The three traders reportedly earned a combined profit of around $90,000. Market data reviewed by reporters showed Machado’s odds spiking late Thursday evening, prompting speculation that some traders may have had advance knowledge of the Nobel Committee’s decision.
According to Protos, one user identified as Trader 6741 created a new account before the announcement, netting about $53,500 in profits. The trader also placed smaller positions favoring Navalnaya, environmental activist Greta Thunberg, and WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
Investor Takeaway
How the Nobel Decision Process Works
The five-member Nobel Peace Prize Committee typically finalizes its decision days before the public announcement. Norwegian media reported that Machado’s nomination was selected by Oct. 6, with the laureate informed within minutes of the official statement at 11 a.m. local time on Friday. The committee’s proceedings are confidential, and any leaks before the announcement could raise questions about internal security.
While there is no direct evidence yet linking the traders to anyone within the committee, the timing of the bets has drawn comparisons to earlier controversies involving financial markets reacting to sensitive political or corporate news. Authorities have not indicated whether formal charges or sanctions are being considered.
Polymarket Under Scrutiny
Polymarket, a blockchain-based predictions platform, allows users to wager on real-world events ranging from elections to sports and economics. The company has faced regulatory attention before. It was fined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 for operating unregistered binary options markets and has since restructured to comply with U.S. derivatives law.
Earlier this week, Polymarket announced a deal with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)—parent company of the New York Stock Exchange—worth about $2 billion. The partnership is expected to expand its market reach and provide new liquidity for event-based contracts. The Nobel incident, however, may complicate those plans as regulators weigh how insider information could affect decentralized prediction platforms.
Investor Takeaway
Next Steps in the Investigation
The Nobel Institute said it is cooperating with Norwegian authorities to review the timing and scope of the Polymarket trades. Officials have not specified whether blockchain analytics firms will be involved in tracing the accounts behind the wagers. Aasheim said only that the inquiry was ongoing and that any findings would be shared “when appropriate.”