Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson anticipates a recovery period of two to six months, though forecasts remain varied.
- •One model highlights historical price action breakout phases observed in 2017, 2021, and 2024.
Bitcoin's Recent Correction and Recovery Projections
Bitcoin's recent correction has moderated bullish sentiment, with analysts now forecasting a more extended period before reaching new all-time highs. Following its peak of $126,200 on October 6, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline of approximately 20%, currently trading below the $100,000 mark.
According to network economist Timothy Peterson, this pullback is consistent with Bitcoin's historical recovery patterns. Peterson explained,
“This is the third 20% drawdown from an all-time high since 2024. The average recovery to a new ATH from these levels is 2–6 months.”
Peterson further elaborated that AI-generated simulations suggest a less than 20% probability of Bitcoin reaching $140,000 by the end of the year. He estimates a 50% chance of BTC finishing above $108,000 and a 30% chance of ending 2025 in negative territory.
Similarly, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, has revised the firm's year-end BTC target from $185,000 down to $120,000, citing the market's maturation. Thorn noted that Bitcoin is entering a phase characterized by increased institutional participation, passive inflows, and reduced volatility in its price behavior.
Thorn added that maintaining the $100,000 support level could preserve the structural integrity of the three-year bull trend. However, he cautioned that "future gains may unfold at a slower, steadier pace as Bitcoin transitions into a maturity era."
In contrast, crypto trader Titan of Crypto presented a more varied outlook. The trader forecasted a potential new all-time high near $130,000 by year-end. However, they also warned that Bitcoin could drop below $70,000 by the first quarter of 2026, based on Wyckoff distribution analysis.
Market Reset and Potential for Parabolic Growth
Despite prevailing caution, Bitcoin commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera offered a contrasting perspective. Perera argued that the recent correction could actually be positioning BTC for a parabolic phase.
Perera highlighted that 29.2% of Bitcoin's supply is currently underwater, a level historically associated with the onset of major rallies. He pointed out that similar metrics preceded the bull runs of 2017, 2021, and 2024, each of which resulted in gains of 150% to 400% within six months.
According to Perera, leverage in derivatives markets has been significantly reduced, and long-term holders now control approximately 70% of the supply. He suggested that institutional accumulation through ETFs and increasing stablecoin reserves indicate that "liquidity is recharging beneath the surface."
The analyst concluded that, barring any major macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin's current structure mirrors previous pre-breakout conditions. He posited that the next 180 days could potentially mark the beginning of another explosive cycle.