MSTR Stock Valuation Concerns Returned to Market Discourse

Valuation risk resurfaced as strategists highlighted frothy multiples following months of AI-driven gains.

This led to concerns about a stock market bubble, given that stock prices are near record highs. Strategists noted a concentration risk in technology‑heavy portfolios, although some argued that fundamentals still supported elevated prices.

Additionally, China expanded rare‑earth export controls on the same date, introducing supply‑chain risk for electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense industries.

The move lifted rare‑earth mining stocks but pressured hardware‑exposed tech and industrial sectors.

The combined factors produced a cooler equity tone as valuation chatter met risk‑off positioning in technology and industrial sectors tied to geopolitical developments.

MSTR Faces Amplified Pressure as Leveraged Bitcoin Proxy

Bubble concerns typically affect high‑beta momentum stocks disproportionately, and Strategy operates as a prime example.

The stock functions as a leveraged call option on Bitcoin due to the company’s massive BTC treasury and periodic debt issuance.

When investors reduce risk exposure, valuation multiples compress, and premiums to Bitcoin’s net asset value can flip to discounts.

Capital flows often migrate to simpler vehicles during risk‑off periods, such as spot ETFs, which can pressure MSTR stock more than Bitcoin itself.

Higher real yields worsen the dynamic by raising carry costs and reducing risk appetite.

The relationship works in reverse when sentiment improves. If bubble chatter fades and Bitcoin rallies, options positioning and short interest can amplify MSTR’s upside relative to the underlying asset.

MSTR Stock Technical Analysts Warned of Deeper Correction

The trader known as Master posted a chart on October 9 suggesting MSTR might enter a downtrend toward $100.

The analysis revealed a head‑and‑shoulders pattern with a neckline break, projecting a downside move toward the $100 region based on the pattern’s measured move.

Meanwhile, analyst Duo Nine highlighted that MSTR underperformed Bitcoin by 43% year‑to‑date as of October 10.

The account SaylorREKTmNAV, which tracks Strategy’s premium to net asset value, noted that MSTR stock displayed its lowest mNAV multiple on record on October 10. The metric reached 1.38x, down from peaks above 2.4x earlier in 2025.

Trader Munky warned that MSTR “wants to nuke to $250,” referencing the stock’s previous strong support level.

The short‑term chart showed price action testing support zones near $309, with Fibonacci retracement levels pointing to potential downside toward the $307‑$320 range before a deeper correction.

Channel Support Offered Rebound Possibility

Trader Aidan noted that MSTR stock respected its broader price channel, suggesting a potential rebound if macro conditions stabilized.

The four‑hour chart showed the stock holding above ascending channel support near $310, with the channel top around $350 representing potential upside if sentiment improved.

The technical setup presented two scenarios. Continued macro pressure could drive MSTR stock toward the $250 support level cited by multiple analysts.

Alternatively, improved conditions and subsiding bubble concerns could support a rebound toward the $350 channel resistance.

Strategy’s fundamentals faced pressure from compressed valuation multiples and declining premiums to Bitcoin holdings.

The stock’s correction potential remained elevated, but a channel rebound scenario remained viable if macro headwinds eased and Bitcoin stabilized above key support levels.