Key Insights
- •Cantor Fitzgerald slashed its 12-month price target on MSTR stock by 60% to $229 but kept a “buy” rating, arguing that fears of forced liquidation are overstated.
- •Analysts said Strategy has enough cash to fund dividends for 21 months and could raise capital through equity facilities unless Bitcoin falls more than 90% from current levels.
- •MSTR stock remains under pressure—down 35% YTD—amid MSCI index removal risks and Bitcoin’s weak 2025 performance compared with gold’s 58% YTD rally.
As of early December 2025, MicroStrategy’s MSTR stock slumped sharply amid a bitcoin sell‑off and index concerns. MSTR stock was down roughly 35% year-to-date, trading around the low $180s, according to market data. On Dec. 4, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts cut their 12-month price target on MSTR from $560 to $229 – a 60% reduction, but notably maintained an “Overweight” (buy) rating. Cantor said the price cut reflects updated assumptions about the value of MicroStrategy’s bitcoin hoard, but it stressed that the firm’s long-term outlook on bitcoin remains bullish.
Cantor Analysis on MSTR Stock
Cantor’s note recalculated the bitcoin component of MicroStrategy’s balance sheet and reduced the assumed per‑share value of its bitcoin cache. Nonetheless, the firm highlighted several factors that undercut panic: Strategy has “enough cash” on hand to fund dividend payments for about 21 months and can issue new equity if needed. In short, analysts at Cantor argued that only an extreme scenario, a roughly 90% plunge in bitcoin, would force MicroStrategy into distress. The bank also downplayed forced-liquidation fears, noting that current bitcoin prices would have to collapse dramatically to deplete Strategy’s reserves.
Despite trimming the target, Cantor reiterated its bullish view. The firm’s analysts called the recent pullback in the stock “healthy” and observed that bitcoin’s long-term momentum is still positive. Cantor even laid out a scenario in which bitcoin eventually overtakes gold’s market capitalization, underscoring its confidence in crypto’s future. The note reminds investors that Cantor Fitzgerald itself is a major shareholder (approximately the ninth-largest) in MSTR stock, giving it an incentive to be realistic about the firm’s prospects.
Cantor also addressed short-term market pressures. It acknowledged that MSCI’s review of digital-asset exposure poses a near-term “flow headwind.” If MSCI were to remove firms with heavy crypto holdings from key indices, funds would likely rebalance out of MSTR. However, Cantor judged this risk as temporary and “somewhat warranted” in the near term, and not a reason to abandon the stock over the long run.
Bitcoin Holdings and Company Outlook
MicroStrategy (now rebranded as Strategy Inc.) has effectively become a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. The company currently holds about 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet. At current prices ($91,000 per coin), that stash is worth roughly $59.3 billion. By comparison, the company’s basic market capitalization is around $53 billion. In other words, Strategy’s market value is now roughly on par with (or even slightly below) the value of its crypto holdings.
This massive bitcoin exposure explains much of MSTR stock’s volatility. In mid‑2025, when bitcoin rallied, MSTR outperformed. More recently, as bitcoin has slipped, the stock plunged as well. For example, after bitcoin fell below $90,000 in late November, its steepest monthly drop since 2021, Strategy’s shares slid about 8% on Dec. 1, hitting fresh one-year lows. The correlation is stark: investors treat MSTR stock as a “bitcoin proxy,” amplifying bitcoin moves in the stock price.
The firm’s financial position, however, remains strong on paper. Cantor noted that Strategy’s $60.7 billion of bitcoin far exceeds its $8.2 billion of debt. None of that debt matures until 2028. And the company’s cash cushion, partly funded by recent preferred stock sales, has prompted analysts to set up reserves for dividends. MicroStrategy announced a $1.44 billion treasury to ensure two years of payouts on its preferred shares. Management says this will help “navigate short-term market volatility.”