Key Insights
- •MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock trades near $177 while a key Bitcoin-linked risk level keeps moving closer.
- •The 0.9x mNAV danger zone could force Bitcoin selling if the stock falls and new funding becomes harder.
- •Price must hold $172, or MicroStrategy may slide toward $146 or even $126 if Bitcoin stays weak.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock is holding near $177 even while Bitcoin has fallen again, down by over 4% at press time. The stock did not drop much in the last day, but it is still down about 34% this month and almost 40% this year.
The price chart shows that MicroStrategy stock now sits at an important point, and the next move depends on Bitcoin and one major risk signal.
This signal comes from the new update shared by the company’s CEO, Phong Le. For the first time, the company said there is a situation where it may be forced to sell some Bitcoin.
This is the same Bitcoin that the company always said it would “never sell.” Because of this, traders are watching the stock more closely than before.
Why MicroStrategy Stock Faces a New Kind of Risk?
The company said Bitcoin can be sold only if two things happen at the same time.
The first condition is when MicroStrategy stock falls under one times its market net asset value, also called mNAV. This value shows if the stock trades higher or lower than the Bitcoin the company holds.
The second condition is when the company cannot raise new money from selling shares or taking loans. Right now, the company’s mNAV is slightly above 1. However, it dropped to 0.96 for a short while.
Analysts say anything below 0.90 is a danger zone. If Bitcoin price falls under about $80,000, that number may drop under 0.90.
When that happens, selling Bitcoin becomes a better option than selling new shares. This is why the market is worried. The company holds more Bitcoin than any other public company, so even a small forced sale can move the crypto market.
The pressure also comes from the large dividend payments the company must make every year.
These payments are between $750 million and $800 million. If the stock keeps falling and Bitcoin keeps falling, covering this amount becomes harder. This is why the company added the emergency option for selling Bitcoin.
And the near-term sentiment regarding the MSTR stock still remains bearish. More so, the S&P 500 again left it out of the listing contention.
What the Chart Says About MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock?
MicroStrategy stock has stayed above $177, but the chart shows that this level is not strong. If the price breaks under this point, the next areas sit near $172 and $146.
A move under these levels can open a deeper fall toward $126 for MSTR stock price. These levels match old support zones that stopped the price many times before.
MicroStrategy stock still reacts to Bitcoin very closely.
When Bitcoin drops, this stock usually drops faster. This month supports that idea. Bitcoin fell sharply in the last 24 hours, and MicroStrategy stock stayed flat only for now. If Bitcoin keeps falling, the stock may follow with a delay.
But analysts remain positive for the long run. Most analyst targets point higher, and almost none of them have a “sell” rating.
They expect the stock to rise again when Bitcoin recovers. This means the analysts are not ignoring the risk, but they believe the long-term plan still works if Bitcoin finds support.
The Bigger Market Still Matters for MSTR Stock
The broader crypto market is weak. Liquidity is low, and traders are careful. This makes every move in Bitcoin more important for MicroStrategy stock.
If the crypto market enters a deeper correction, MicroStrategy stock may break under $172 and move toward the next lower levels faster.
The risk trigger around the mNAV level adds more stress. The market knows that if this number goes below 0.90, the company may need to think about selling Bitcoin.
Many traders now watch this number every day. They also watch Bitcoin’s price because it directly affects mNAV.
For now, the company says it still plans to hold all its Bitcoin. But its CEO has confirmed that the emergency option exists. This is why the price risk is real and not just a rumor.
For the stock to recover, MicroStrategy stock must stay above $177 and move back toward $195 and $220. These levels can help build a stronger trend again. But none of that can happen if Bitcoin keeps falling.
The stock is stuck between good long-term hopes and short-term pressure from the crypto drop.