Polymarket traders are increasingly betting that MicroStrategy could be dropped from the MSCI index by the end of Q1 2026. As of now, the probability sits at 61%, a significant shift in sentiment that highlights growing uncertainty around the company’s future within the major index.
This speculation has caught the attention of investors, especially those watching the intersection of traditional finance and cryptocurrency. Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, aggregates the opinions of traders wagering on real-world events, offering a unique lens into market expectations.
Why Are Traders Bearish on MicroStrategy?
The concern appears tied to MicroStrategy’s massive exposure to Bitcoin. Under the leadership of Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company has transitioned from a business intelligence firm to a de facto Bitcoin holding company. With the price volatility of crypto assets and potential shifts in institutional investment strategies, MSCI may be reconsidering MicroStrategy’s place in its indices.
Indexes like MSCI assess companies based on factors like size, liquidity, sector relevance, and risk exposure. Given the unique nature of MicroStrategy’s business model—essentially Bitcoin accumulation—traders believe there’s a higher risk of exclusion.
JUST IN: Polymarket traders now give a 61% chance that MicroStrategy will be delisted from the MSCI index by March 31. pic.twitter.com/J2hWTz19sP
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) December 4, 2025
What a Delisting Could Mean
If MicroStrategy is indeed removed from the MSCI index, it could trigger significant fund outflows. Many institutional investors and ETFs that track the MSCI index may be forced to sell their positions, potentially leading to stock price volatility.
However, some argue this might not hurt MicroStrategy in the long run. As a company so tightly linked with Bitcoin, its stock may continue to attract crypto-aligned investors, regardless of its status within traditional financial indexes.