Metaplanet's valuation metric indexed to Bitcoin, mNAV, fell below 1 for the first time on October 14, 2025, reaching 0.99. This level indicates that the enterprise value is priced below the BTC stock held. The development followed a period without additional purchases announced by the Tokyo-based company amidst significant market fluctuations. As the market reduces the premium on the company’s Bitcoin treasury strategy, this metric marks a historical turning point.
Significance of the Discount Signal from Metaplanet's mNAV
The mNAV is a metric specifically designed for companies holding BTC in their treasury, showing the ratio between enterprise value and Bitcoin net assets. A drop below 1 theoretically signals a “discounted” trading to BTC. A ratio above 1 indicates a premium. Thus, investors can monitor the discrepancy between share pricing and BTC value on the balance sheet in real time.
Metaplanet publicly reports over 30,000 BTC and regularly updates its mNAV on its corporate board. During periods of high volatility, the ratio can quickly change, influenced by changes in stock movements, debt items, and cash levels.
Approved in 2024, Metaplanet's “Bitcoin treasury vehicle” strategy is supported by new share issuances and debt instruments. An international offering of approximately $1.4 billion was announced in September. Recent decisions on authorization for preferred share issuance can provide ammunition for new BTC acquisitions, affecting pricing through dilution effects.
What Does the Drop Below 1 in mNAV Indicate?
The drop of mNAV below 1 creates a discount perception that could attract arbitrage-focused investors, providing a signal that the premium in the Digital Asset Treasury narrative might be dissolving. It is expected that management will need to balance the pace of acquisitions, the cost of capital, and market liquidity in upcoming periods. If the ratio does not rise above 1, financial adjustments may become necessary.
Moving forward, Metaplanet's challenge remains to manage its strategic plans effectively while navigating these market dynamics and investor expectations.
- •Metaplanet's mNAV fell below 1, signaling bitcoin valuation lower than enterprise value.
- •The drop signifies adjusting market perceptions on Bitcoin's strategic premium.
- •Management faces balancing acquisition rates, capital costs, and liquidity for recovery.