Bitcoin briefly plunged to $106,000, dragging altcoins lower before bargain hunters stepped in late Thursday, stabilizing prices ahead of Friday’s expiration events.
Deribit data shows that $15.9 billion worth of options contracts are set to expire on October 31 — $13.4 billion in Bitcoin and $2.5 billion in Ethereum. The simultaneous expiry of weekly and monthly contracts is expected to inject short-term volatility, with Bitcoin’s “max pain” level sitting around $114,000 and Ethereum’s at $4,100.
Both assets remain below these levels, with BTC hovering near $108,000 and ETH trading around $3,830. Traders say this positioning suggests limited upside before expiry, as markets gravitate toward equilibrium zones.
Bitcoin Must Break $112K to Reach a New All-Time High
Amid the uncertainty, market analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes Bitcoin’s next decisive moment is close. In his latest market update, he identified $112,000 as the crucial breakout threshold for BTC, arguing that clearing it could pave the way for a new all-time high in November.
#Bitcoin needs to break $112K — that’s the crucial level before a new ATH. Mentioned it before, and it's still valid. I do think we'll see a new ATH in November. However, it did hit support. If this level is lost for Bitcoin, then we're looking at a sweep of $103K or even… pic.twitter.com/XJQRo5CAvV
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 30, 2025
“Bitcoin needs to break $112K — that’s the critical level before a new ATH,” van de Poppe wrote, adding that he still expects record highs within weeks if the breakout succeeds.
However, he also warned that the current structure remains fragile. If support around $107,000 fails, Bitcoin could revisit $103,000 or even lower before finding renewed strength. His accompanying chart highlights a “buy zone” below $104,000, where he expects dip-buying activity to intensify.
“Buy the dip,” he concluded, signaling confidence in a rebound once the correction completes.
Options Expiry Adds Pressure
Friday’s expiry could either fuel or frustrate that bullish setup. The $114,000 max pain zone remains the magnet level for Bitcoin, suggesting potential sideways movement as traders adjust positions. A clean break above $112,000 — van de Poppe’s key target — could catch short sellers off guard and spark a rapid short squeeze.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s setup appears similar, with a $4,100 magnet level and a 0.7 put/call ratio indicating a mildly bullish bias. Analysts say ETH’s ability to reclaim momentum may depend on broader Bitcoin direction in the coming sessions.
The Road Ahead: November’s Make-or-Break Setup
With both macro and technical factors colliding, November could mark the turning point for this cycle. Derivatives traders will be watching whether Bitcoin’s consolidation evolves into a breakout or another pullback toward the $103K–$106K range.
Van de Poppe’s analysis suggests that if BTC manages to clear $112K, the next leg of the bull market could ignite quickly — but if the level breaks down, a sweep toward deeper support levels is likely before any new rally emerges.
For now, Bitcoin sits on the edge of decision — and with $15.9 billion in contracts expiring, that decision could arrive sooner than expected.