Bitcoin is regaining the interest of institutional markets. This week, U.S. spot ETFs attracted $1.8 billion in inflows, a record peak since October 2025. Such a spectacular resurgence occurs in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, rekindling hopes of a new bull cycle. However, does this surge reflect a fundamental trend or just a technical rebound? As the $100,000 threshold fuels speculation, the market remains suspended on the consistency of these new funds.
In brief
- •U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.8 billion in net inflows in one week, an unprecedented level since October 2025.
- •This capital surge occurs as BTC tests the $98,000 resistance, reigniting speculation of a potential rally to $100,000.
- •Despite this rebound, total ETF assets remain 24% below their 2025 peak, reflecting only a partial and fragile recovery.
- •Analysts, such as those from Ecoinometrics, urge caution: positive flows over a few days are insufficient to trigger a lasting trend.
A Massive Influx of Capital, But Recovery Still Fragile
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded this week $1.8 billion in net inflows, a record since last October.
This renewed interest occurs as the BTC price tested the $98,000 resistance. Such a surge in flows marks the strongest weekly inflow since the first week of October 2025, confirming a return of institutional appetite for bitcoin exposure products.
Despite this rebound in inflows, total ETF assets remain down 24% from their peak in Q4 2025, dropping from $164.5 billion to $125 billion. This contrast highlights that while interest is reviving, it still does not compensate for outflows observed in previous months.
In other words, these numbers need to be interpreted with caution. The analysis letter Ecoinometrics emphasizes: bitcoin does not need just a few good days, it needs several good weeks. In other words, isolated spikes of flows have often been followed by rapid exhaustion.
Here are the key points to remember:
- •Weekly inflows are high but currently insufficient to restart a sustained bullish trend.
- •The analysis of cumulative flows remains negative, despite some recent positive spikes.
- •ETF AUM remain nearly a quarter below their historical peak, proof that current movements do not yet offset past outflows.
- •The technical threshold of $98,000 has not been crossed, suggesting continuing investor caution despite buy signals.
A Structurally Stronger Demand Than Supply
Beneath the volatility of weekly flows, deeper forces are at work. Since the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024, funds have acquired approximately 710,777 BTC, while the network produced only 363,047 over the same period, according to Bitwise data.
This supply-demand imbalance is central. It means that even without speculative rally, the institutional demand exercised via ETFs already absorbs almost twice the new bitcoin supply. This phenomenon, according to Bitwise, has contributed to the 94% price increase of the crypto since the launch of ETFs.
In the medium term, this imbalance could intensify. Bitwise anticipates that ETFs will purchase more than 100% of new bitcoin production over this year, a forecast linked to the rise of institutional players, such as asset managers, listed companies, or even some sovereign wealth funds.
This dynamic fits into a long-term trend. Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted $36.2 billion in net flows in 2024, reaching $125 billion in assets under management at a faster pace than observed during the rise of SPDR Gold Shares, the gold-backed ETF.
Bitcoin soars to $97,000, driven by an unprecedented resurgence of institutional interest. However, behind this surge, the question remains: are we witnessing a durable turning point or just a temporary exuberance? The coming weeks will reveal if flows to ETFs can transform the current momentum into a true bullish trend.