Polymarket analysts are closely examining several whale wallets that placed significant bets around the potential arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro. This recent surge in directional betting has intensified the search for any signs of insider trading within the prediction market.
The predictions concerning Venezuela have rekindled discussions about the possibility of insider information. A select group of wallets has been identified as engaging in suspicious prediction trades.
These predictions related to Venezuela coincided with a statement from US President Donald Trump concerning the arrest of individuals who leaked information. However, no direct link has been established between the now-deleted Polymarket whale account and the recent arrests.
Despite the lack of direct confirmation, bets placed on potential US military actions are being meticulously monitored for any indications of insider knowledge.
Polymarket analysts have refocused their attention on the accounts that were most active during the period surrounding President Maduro’s arrest. The primary wallet under observation ultimately recorded gains of 194,741.73 before its account was deleted.
On-chain analysts have highlighted several wallets that experienced outsized gains in relation to the situation in Venezuela. Two of the three identified wallets have become inactive and have not made any new predictions for the past 11 days.
As previously reported, Polymarket is currently disputing the earnings of some of the whales who made predictions concerning Venezuela.
One Polymarket Whale Shifts Focus to Iran Situation
One of the three closely monitored wallets has transitioned to a new market, with the trader identified as Sbet365 continuing to place new bets.
As of January 15, this trader also initiated redemption transactions for their earlier bets on Venezuela.
The trader maintains one active prediction on the market titled "Khamenei out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31." This market is currently trending with over $28 million in volume. The Sbet365 wallet has been consistently buying 'yes' tokens at an average price of $0.20, positioning for substantial gains should the predicted outcome occur.
The prediction market has observed a shift in trading activity, with 'yes' tokens recently dipping to $0.17 following a lack of decisive US action in Iran. The prediction pair remains at the forefront of trending markets on Polymarket, experiencing highly active trading.
The third whale, which had bet on President Maduro losing his post by January 31, has not made any new predictions. While these traders achieved relatively high gains from their positions, their actions have further fueled concerns about potential insider trading. The three tracked wallets appeared to be funded and prepared, placing their bets immediately prior to significant real-world events.
Traders Experience Significant Losses on Iran Situation Predictions
The outcomes predicted on Polymarket can sometimes result in substantial losses. One trader made a significant directional bet anticipating strikes against Iran by January 14, ultimately losing over $40,000 on the position.
Despite such instances, Polymarket accounts continue to be scrutinized for potential insider activity. Wallets are specifically identified for making confident bets or funding their accounts shortly before major events. However, it is important to note that no strategy can guarantee exposure to insider knowledge or provide definitive hints about the resolution of prediction pairs.
Polymarket wallet trackers are designed to identify behaviors that deviate from the typical patterns of retail traders. These tools have also flagged a top suspicious whale that was active around the time of President Maduro's arrest.