American entrepreneur and venture capitalist Mark Moss recently explained why a major collapse, including cryptocurrencies, is unlikely. Despite the downturn in Bitcoin prices over the last two months, reminiscent of an underwhelming final quarter compared to 2021, Moss remains optimistic.
The Myth of a Cryptocurrency Fallout
The prevalent belief these days is that Bitcoin prices might form a lower peak closer to $100,000 before dropping to $50,000. The $20,000 bottoms are now behind us, and as with every cycle, the bottom target has risen. However, a reduction to $50,000 could result in painful outcomes for altcoins.
Mark Moss highlights that Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased with the introduction of ETFs, leading to a reduced likelihood of major corrections. When he commented on this, Bitcoin hadn’t yet fallen below $40,000, yet the ETF investor cost serving as support was an inspiring development.
According to him, economic risks and global monetary expansion will sustain demand for scarce assets.
You see ETF demand ten times greater than the miners’ supply to the market. Thus, there’s a significant supply-demand imbalance, met by OG whales opening their massive wallets, which isn’t about new supply. Hence, even halving the supply from here would make no difference.
Indeed, ETF demand has frequently surpassed daily new Bitcoin supply, and if not for the largest sales wave since the launch in early 2024, this narrative might have persisted. Still, for the first time in nearly two years, we’ve observed such exits in the Bitcoin ETF channel, with over 95% of ETF investors remaining steadfast.
Seeing Salvation in Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin is presently insulated from the sharp 80% downturns witnessed during its prior nightmare periods. Moreover, if 2021 manifests according to the four-year cycle, more significant dips should have emerged in December and January. For now, that isn’t the case. Should Bitcoin maintain its strength over the coming months, it will likely disrupt the motivations of sellers focused on the four-year cycle narrative. This is already visibly reflected in recent whale purchases offsetting short-term investor sales.
Mark Moss describes the phenomenon we’re witnessing as a reverse collapse. While in a traditional collapse, asset values fall, in a reverse collapse, they rise. In one scenario, stocks lose value, but in the other, they appreciate. The outcome is consistent in making you feel poorer.
What we are witnessing now is a reverse collapse, not a fall, but a rise. We observe prices moving away from us, with the S&P 500 climbing, Bitcoin rising, gold appreciating, homes elevating, and even meat, milk, eggs, and holidays increasing, yet the result remains unchanged, eroding the quality of life I used to enjoy—a classic inflationary collapse.
As governments continue printing money, its purchasing power diminishes, a trend that will accelerate by the next year. This is the critical issue Mark Moss emphasized. As investors flee fiat money, akin to a sinking ship, and gravitate toward other assets, Bitcoin’s scarce supply positions it for further appreciation.
Furthermore, as BRICS countries assume net gold buyer positions and strive to undermine the dollar’s supremacy, the U.S. is working to enhance stablecoin growth. This becomes practically a state policy for the U.S. since maintaining the dollar’s global usage above 60% necessitates support from stablecoins. Growth in stablecoins equates to increased liquidity in cryptocurrencies as most issuance occurs on publicly accessible blockchains. With these arguments, Mark Moss anticipates a continued uptrend for Bitcoin.