Red Flag
Bitcoin’s Taker Buy Volume has dropped to its lowest level since late 2024 and has persisted through most of 2025. Such a move sends a potential warning signal to bulls, despite the cryptocurrency’s recovery.
Data across major exchanges reveals that the one-month moving average of Taker Buy Volume continues a fluctuating downtrend that began in December 2024, indicating a weakening demand from aggressive buyers. CryptoQuant explained that this pattern is particularly evident on Binance, the world’s largest exchange, where the decline has steepened in recent days, suggesting a combination of fading trader confidence, increased selling pressure, and expectations for deeper price corrections.
Previous instances have shown that sharp drops in Taker Buy Volume often lead to shifts in market momentum, because it either steers in extended consolidation or triggers notable pullbacks. While Bitcoin’s price stability points to underlying support, the lack of strong inflows raises the risk that bulls may lose their grip if demand fails to recover.
As such, without a meaningful rebound in buy pressure, the market could transition into a neutral or bearish phase over the medium term, which would leave it vulnerable to a significant correction despite lofty price levels.
On the flip side, a steady uptick in Taker Buy Volume would be an encouraging sign, which could help in reviving bullish sentiment and reinforcing the current uptrend.
Q4 Fireworks Ahead?
Despite the short-term red flags to Bitcoin’s uptick, on-chain metrics suggest the bull market remains intact. Several indicators are flashing signals of further upside in the longer-term while echoing patterns seen in the 2017 and 2020 cycles. An important metric is the MVRV ratio, which has cooled toward the 2.0 level, a zone that is often associated with mid-cycle resets rather than upcoming tops.
Investors remain comfortably profitable without the overheated conditions that typically precede sharp corrections. Supporting this view, long-term holders are showing little interest in selling, as evidenced by the sharp decline in profit-taking activity. Their conviction creates a favorable backdrop for price expansion if fresh demand emerges.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin Vector said that Bitcoin is eyeing a record monthly close above $115,800, ending a month that began with uncertainty and a bearish tilt. Its latest analysis stated that crucial fundamentals remained strong through most of Q3, aside from a brief soft patch in early July. The Risk-Off Signal wavered in mid‑August but never entered the high‑risk zone, which gave Bitcoin room to establish a solid base below $110,000.
Historically, a true bullish‑to‑bearish shift requires both a high‑risk regime and weakening fundamentals. These conditions are absent for now. Despite lingering market stress, the analytics platform said that Bitcoin retains enough momentum to potentially drive higher as Q4 begins.