Key Takeaways
- •Kevin O’Leary believes a December rate cut is unlikely and says Bitcoin won’t react much either way.
- •The investor argues inflation remains sticky and policymakers have little incentive to ease.
- •Market expectations for a cut have swung wildly as traders respond to shifting Fed signals.
The investor told Cointelegraph the entire debate is misplaced — not because the Fed’s decision is irrelevant to financial markets, but because Bitcoin has reached a point where short-term monetary moves no longer command its direction.
Speaking in a Tuesday interview, O’Leary said he does not expect the Fed to trim rates this month and added that even if the market gets a surprise cut, it likely wouldn’t spark a major Bitcoin rally.
Inflation Still Too Stubborn, O’Leary Says
O’Leary’s skepticism stems from what he sees in the broader economy. Price pressures, he argues, are still far from where the Federal Reserve wants them. U.S. inflation climbed back to 3% in September – the highest level since early in the year – and tariffs, wage costs, and supply-chain adjustments continue to feed underlying inflation.
Because the central bank must balance both employment conditions and inflation, he believes officials have little appetite to loosen policy prematurely. In his view, expecting an end-of-year cut is more wishful thinking than sound forecasting.
Markets Expect Dovish Action — But the Odds Keep Whipsawing
Despite O’Leary’s stance, traders remain overwhelmingly convinced that the Fed will drop rates. CME’s FedWatch data shows expectations sitting near 89%, a dramatic turnaround from just weeks ago when odds briefly plunged toward 30%.
The rapid shifts reveal how sensitive the market has become to every hint from policymakers. One of the most influential moments came on Nov. 21, when New York Fed President John Williams said rate cuts could happen “in the near term” without derailing inflation progress. Those remarks turbocharged cut expectations overnight.
Bitcoin’s Range Reflects a Market Waiting for a Catalyst
O’Leary said Bitcoin’s recent trading behavior supports his argument. After sliding more than 17% over the past month, BTC has settled around $91,000 and, according to him, is unlikely to deviate more than 5% in either direction in the near term. That range-bound movement, he says, shows the asset has already absorbed most macro uncertainty — and may not break out until a more meaningful catalyst emerges.
Even so, the broader crypto market staged a notable rebound this week, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum retracing their Monday losses. But O’Leary maintains that these short-term ripples shouldn’t be confused with a Fed-driven move.
A Year Defined by Shifting Policy Expectations
The debate over the December meeting caps off a year marked by sharp reversals in interest-rate expectations. After delivering its first 2025 cut in September and another in November, the Fed initially appeared on track for a steady easing cycle. But recurring inflation surprises, geopolitical risks, and an uneven labor market kept traders guessing about how aggressively the central bank can move.
For O’Leary, the takeaway is simple: the Fed may still cut — just not now — and Bitcoin will chart its own path regardless of whether markets get the dovish outcome they’re betting on.