Key Takeaways
- •Kalshi predicts 80% chance of US government shutdown.
- •Kalshi and Polymarket's probability estimates surge.
- •Potential financial impact remains speculative.
Kalshi and Polymarket predict an 80% likelihood of a US government shutdown at midnight, amid stalled funding negotiations and increasing Congressional tensions in Washington.
The prediction signals potential volatility in macroeconomic conditions, though historical data suggests limited immediate effects on major markets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Kalshi has predicted an 80% probability of a US government shutdown occurring as talks on funding stall.
This forecast by Kalshi, a regulated event contract exchange, highlights pressures facing federal lawmakers.
Market forecast influences include comments from Senate leaders and Vice President Vance. No significant comments surfaced from congressional leaders like Chuck Schumer or Vice President J.D. Vance regarding Kalshi’s probabilities, although they commented on the legislative impasse.
With budget agreements stalled, regulatory impacts are looming over the market.
Unresolved funding could temporarily impact government operations or delay services.
However, crypto markets have historically shown resilience in similar events, often seeing no drastic shifts. Monica Guerra, Head of U.S. Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said, "We would remind investors that shutdowns are common, and once resolved, agency operating budgets and employees are made whole, blunting any broader market and economic impacts."