As is known, following the budget crisis in the USA, the budget bill failed to receive approval and the US government officially shut down.
While the government shutdown is expected to have an impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market as well as financial markets, it is also stated that it will delay altcoin ETF decisions.
Like many government agencies, the SEC has furloughed many employees and will continue to operate with a limited staff. This has caused delays in decisions regarding the altcoin ETFs awaiting approval.
While popular altcoins such as XRP, Solana, and Litecoin are among the altcoins awaiting approval from the SEC, JPMorgan announced its expectations for the Solana (SOL) ETF.
JPMorgan analysts said spot Solana ETFs are likely to be approved soon, but will see limited inflows compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs, The Block reported.
Analysts estimate that Solana ETFs will see net inflows of only about $1.5 billion in the first year, compared to about one-seventh of the Ethereum ETF inflows in the first year.
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the report:
“The likelihood of spot Solana ETF approval is further strengthened by the fact that a futures contract is already trading on the CME.
But even if the SOL ETFs are approved, first-year inflows would be around $1.5 billion.
This equates to about one-seventh of the Ethereum ETF holdings.
JPMorgan analysts listed the following reasons for the outlook they predicted for SOL: “slowing on-chain activity, concentrated trading in memecoins, weakening investor sentiment towards Solana compared to Ethereum, declining on-chain activity such as declining active addresses since November 2024, and competition with composite index-based products such as the S&P Dow Jones Digital Market 50.”
JPMorgan also noted that there was no clear signal of strong demand in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Solana futures positions, suggesting that Solana ETFs would be in high demand.
JPMorgan's latest forecast contradicts earlier estimates from another JPMorgan analyst team led by Kenneth B. Worthington, which earlier this year estimated that the Solana ETFs could attract net inflows of $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion within six to 12 months if approved.
*This is not investment advice.