Bitcoin (BTC) Price and (Ethereum) ETH Price: Why Old Maxims Are Failing
Let’s break down three clichés Melker calls out:
“Old resistance becomes new support.”
Sometimes, sure. But during price discovery, order books are thinner, momentum traders run the tables, and there’s no guarantee those previous highs catch the knife if things reverse.
Just look at the latest Bitcoin (BTC) price action: as soon as it surged through $126,000, risk appetite bloomed, but it just as quickly snapped back to test lower levels.
“Demand slows at all‑time highs.” The data disagree. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.2 billion in inflows last week, the second‑highest since their launch in early 2024.
That’s not demand slowing. It’s accelerating, especially as more investors start reallocating away from dollar‑denominated assets amid fears of debasement.
“Emotion fades and fundamentals take over.” Not a chance, at least in this phase. As Melker points out, markets aren’t supposed to be rational when there’s nothing overhead.
Every uptick is uncharted, every sell wall is psychological, and people start betting on velocity (not balance‑sheet realities).
The Macro Fuel: Why Now?
Bitcoin’s current moves aren’t happening in a vacuum. The US government shutdown, now stretching into its second week, has poured gasoline on alternative asset demand.
Mainstream media and analysts alike (take Standard Chartered, for example) agree that mounting fiscal standoffs and expectations of lower Fed interest rates are providing the “perfect storm” for both BTC and gold.
Speaking of gold, the world’s oldest “safe haven” isn’t moving slow and steady anymore. Gold broke $4,000/oz for the first time this week, a staggering 53 % gain from the start of the year.
This is classic price discovery in an asset class with centuries of reputation for consistency.
If gold can surprise after 5,000 years in the game, outpacing the S&P 500, the Bitcoin (BTC) price should be expected to break harder and run further.
Valuation Models Are Just Models
Here’s the other side Melker hammers: fundamental valuation models are sitting ducks during discovery. The price is set only by what buyers are willing to pay at this exact moment.
That’s why analysts see projections from $135,000 to $250,000 for Bitcoin price, within the next 12 months.
The rational valuation math has flown out the window, replaced by a race to reprice risk, yield, and the mere idea of “scarcity.”
If you’re holding through this, Melker’s right: congratulations! This isn’t a rational market, but it is the market, and the battle between emotion and reality is what sets new floors and ceilings.
Both can be true: price can be near a short‑term top, and the structure can remain incredibly bullish a year or more out. Irrationality is the feature, not the bug: