Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Finally Over?

Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed a recognizable 4-year cycle, tied closely to its halving events. This cycle often consists of a strong bull market after each halving, followed by a correction, a bear market, and a recovery phase. But with the current market dynamics, many are questioning whether this pattern still holds.

Galaxy Digital’s Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn, has reignited the conversation. He suggests that while market maturity and institutional involvement have altered some dynamics, the cycle’s structure might still be intact—just playing out differently.

Thorn points out that despite the volatility, Bitcoin has consistently rebounded after major macro events, and historical patterns still offer insight into future price action.

BTC to $185K? A Closer Look at the Prediction

Thorn outlines a scenario in which Bitcoin could reach $185,000, driven by growing institutional demand, ETF flows, and the ongoing devaluation of fiat currencies. He argues that long-term holders remain strong, and new entrants to the market are showing increased conviction.

However, reaching that target won’t be without hurdles. Key macroeconomic risks—including inflation uncertainty, interest rate shifts, and geopolitical instability—could impact BTC’s trajectory in the short to medium term.

Despite this, the fundamental thesis remains strong: Bitcoin’s scarcity, utility as a hedge, and growing adoption could drive prices higher, even if the 4-year cycle doesn’t play out exactly as before.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

Whether or not the traditional 4-year cycle is over, Thorn emphasizes that Bitcoin remains a high-potential asset, especially in a shifting global financial landscape. Investors should keep an eye on broader macro trends, regulatory developments, and adoption rates.

Even if the familiar cycle fades, the forces behind Bitcoin’s rise—scarcity, decentralization, and institutional support—remain firmly in place. That could mean history won’t repeat exactly, but it may still rhyme.