Solana’s native token, SOL (SOL), traded at $230 on Tuesday, up 20% from its local low of $191 reached on Sept. 25. This recovery is fueled by increasing optimism around the possible approval of spot Solana exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) in the US this week.
Will this be the catalyst for SOL price to finally break $300?
Spot Solana ETFs coming?
October’s ETF spotlight could provide the tailwinds SOL needs to break out into price discovery, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deadlines looming this week.
The agency is expected to decide on nine spot Solana ETF applications, with deadlines for filings from VanEck, Canary, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton approaching on Friday, Oct. 10. Applications by Bitwise and 21Shares are facing final reviews by Oct. 16.
“Big week for Solana. The final deadline for spot $SOL ETF approval is just 4 days away,” said crypto YouTuber Lark Davis in an X post on Monday, adding:
“High chances we get the approval this week.”
Bloomberg senior ETF analysts estimate a 100% approval probability, citing regulatory clarity and the change in leadership at the SEC.
Polymarket bettors are also very optimistic, placing the odds of a spot Solana ETF in 2025 at over 99%.
The SEC’s adoption of generic listing standards for digital asset ETFs has streamlined the process, removing the need for asset‑specific rule changes.
If spot Solana ETFs “get the green light, SOL could enter a new chapter of institutional adoption,” HODL Gentleman wrote in a Tuesday post on X.
Approvals could unlock billions in institutional capital, as seen with REX‑Osprey Solana Staking ETF, SSK, which debuted on July 2 with over $33 million in first‑day volume.
As Cointelegraph reported, Grayscale’s launch of staking for Solana exchange‑traded products backs the bullish case for SOL.
Can SOL price break $300?
SOL’s price action has painted two bull flag patterns in the daily time frame, which hint at the asset’s rise to $300 and beyond.
A bull flag is a bullish continuation pattern that occurs after a significant rise, followed by a consolidation period at the higher price end of the range. As a technical rule, a breakout above the flag’s upper trendline may trigger a parabolic price rise.
SOL’s daily chart shows two bull flag patterns, as shown in the figure below. The first is a smaller one formed since Sept. 25, which will resolve once the price breaks above the upper boundary of the flag at $233.
The measured target for this pattern, which is the height of the flag’s post added to the breakout point, is $290, representing a 25% increase from the current level.
The second is a bigger bull flag that has been forming since early August, projecting an even higher target for the altcoin.
SOL broke above the upper boundary of the flag around $212 on Oct. 1, as shown in the chart above. With the breakout still in play, SOL price could continue its uptrend toward the measured target of $345, or a 50% rally from the current levels.
A similar target was set by analyst NekoZ, who said a simple technical setup in an ascending parallel channel projected $346 SOL price.
As Cointelegraph reported, the upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that buyers are in control. That increases the likelihood of a break above stiff overhead resistance of $260, which is needed to secure the uptrend.