Key Insights
- •PENGU's trading volume saw a significant decrease from $6 billion in July to $315 million by early December.
- •Over $50 million in long positions were liquidated in October, exacerbating the token's price decline.
- •The current price rebound and observed chart patterns are reminiscent of the token's rally in April, suggesting a potential for another breakout.
The PENGU token has experienced a sharp drop in value since its mid-July peak, yet recent trading data suggests a possible change in trend. The price dropped from above $0.045 to nearly $0.01 by early December. The current recovery, while still limited, reflects a similar phase that preceded the token’s surge. This has led some to monitor closely for signs of a repeat performance.
Trading Activity Slows After Mid-Year Peak
After reaching daily trading volumes above $6 billion in July, PENGU saw activity decline throughout the following months. By early December, its 24-hour trading volume had dropped to $315 million. The decrease in volume aligned with a falling price, suggesting a drop in buying interest.
Alongside this, open interest declined sharply from over $600 million to less than $100 million, showing that fewer traders were holding positions.
This decline in both metrics continued through November. This trend points to reduced engagement from traders who may have exited positions or shifted their focus to other assets. The weakened metrics suggested that speculative interest in the token had faded by the end of November.
Liquidation Events Added Pressure on Price
While trading volume and interest fell steadily, a major event in late October further affected the token's value. At that time, over $50 million in long positions were liquidated. This event led to a wave of forced selling, which accelerated the price decline.
Such liquidations typically happen when prices fall quickly, and leveraged traders are unable to maintain their positions. Following this liquidation wave, the token struggled to find support as buying interest remained low.
The combined effect of falling volume and recent liquidations created a weak trading environment. However, recent price data shows an upward movement of 8.55% in the past 24 hours, raising new interest in the asset.
Previous Patterns Point to Possible Repeat
Earlier in 2025, PENGU followed a similar trajectory. After a period of low activity, the token surged in April, outperforming many other meme-based assets. The current phase bears resemblance to that earlier cycle, in both duration and structure, though the recent drop was less severe than its initial post-launch correction.
K A L E O pointed out that the previous breakout followed a quiet phase, and stated that the chart now looks familiar. As activity shows early signs of returning, the token’s performance in the coming weeks may determine whether the historical cycle continues to repeat.
The analyst noted the similarity between both periods that could again attempt a move toward its previous all-time high above $0.5. While some traders remain cautious, others are closely tracking the market for any follow-up moves in volume and price.