October began with significant optimism for the cryptocurrency market, with expectations of price increases, new record highs, and the continuation of a bull run. This optimism was initially met with success in the first week of the month. Bitcoin's price, which had already shown signs of recovery in late September, surged past $120,000, surpassing its previous all-time high to set a new record of just over $126,000.
However, the market sentiment took a sharp turn downwards for the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, with Bitcoin leading the losses, particularly on two significant Fridays. Specifically, the largest digital asset experienced a substantial plunge. On October 10th, Bitcoin's price dropped from over $121,000 to $101,000 on some exchanges. Despite a brief attempt at recovery, it plummeted again to $104,000 a week later.
The remainder of the month saw some positive developments that offered a glimmer of hope. These included lower-than-expected inflation figures for September, interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and encouraging news regarding trade deal progress between the United States and China. These factors contributed to Bitcoin's recovery to some extent, but the gains were not as substantial as many had anticipated. Consequently, Bitcoin concluded October, a month historically known for its bullish performance, with a slight decline in value.
A Break in the Streak: The Significance of a Red October
With a 3.69% decline recorded in October 2025, Bitcoin broke a six-year streak of positive monthly performance. Data from CoinGlass indicates that Bitcoin had achieved double-digit gains in five of the preceding six Octobers. The only exception to this trend was during the bear market of 2022.
To find a previous October with a price decline similar to the 2025 edition, one must look back to October 2018. In that month, BTC concluded with a price drop of 3.83%. The period that followed this decline was notably challenging. If historical patterns are to repeat, this could suggest a potential drop for BTC to as low as $70,000 in November.
Last time October closed at -3% for $BTC ,
it was followed by a -36% drop in November pic.twitter.com/eRuW88XPBp
— 𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 (@nobrainflip) October 30, 2025
Potential for a $70K Drop in November?
In November 2018, the month immediately following the previous red October, Bitcoin's price experienced a significant decline of 36.57%. The bear market of 2018 proved particularly damaging, culminating in a substantial dump below $3,000 in December, which also saw a 5% price decrease.
It is important to acknowledge that the current market landscape is considerably different from that of 2018. Bitcoin has evolved from being perceived as a speculative digital asset to a multi-trillion-dollar behemoth, garnering support from institutions, prominent investors, and even governments. While history is not a definitive predictor of future price movements, observing past patterns, especially Bitcoin's performance in the November that followed a red October, remains a valuable exercise.