Key Takeaways
- •Blockchain data indicates that short-term Bitcoin holders are currently experiencing record unrealized losses.
- •Market analysts hold divided opinions, with price predictions ranging from a decline below $75,000 to a potential increase towards $110,000 by the end of 2025.
- •While institutional selling remains significant, an increase in buyer absorption on major exchanges suggests the early stages of stabilization.
The most compelling evidence of emotional strain in the Bitcoin market is not found on price charts, but rather on the blockchain itself. On-chain data reveals that short-term holders are enduring the most severe unrealized losses in Bitcoin's history, with approximately 99% of recently acquired coins currently trading below their purchase price. This situation surpasses all previous stress events, including the COVID-19 crash and the FTX implosion, which many traders had previously considered the ultimate capitulation points.
Capitulation Manifests on the Blockchain Prior to Price Action
Analysts observe that extreme capitulation among short-term wallets has historically coincided with significant market turning points. Chris Beamish highlighted that net unrealized profit/loss data has plunged far below the levels associated with all prior cycle lows, describing it as a moment where confidence dissipates almost instantaneously.
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, argues that every market bottom begins with a phase similar to this – characterized by brutality, chaos, and emotional distress – long before the price begins to stabilize.
Predictions Emerge Following Data Revelation
Once the severity of the sell-off became evident, commentary from influential voices in the market began to surface. John Deaton stated that a drop below $75,000 would not surprise him, but he presented this not as a bearish outlook, but rather as a phenomenon consistent with Bitcoin's behavior preceding a major reversal. Deaton believes that if selling pressure subsides and confidence returns, a price of $110,000 is achievable before the close of 2025.
Anthony Pompliano echoed a similar sentiment from a psychological perspective, noting that the Fear & Greed Index has now reached its lowest reading in Bitcoin's history. He pointed out that long-term believers often become most enthusiastic when fear appears "irrationally high."
We just saw the lowest reading on the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index in history.
Lower than FTX and COVID.
But the true believers are getting excited because their favorite asset is now on sale. pic.twitter.com/tszpZr3VjZ
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) November 21, 2025
The Crucial Element: Buyers Capable of Absorbing Panic
A key difference in the current situation compared to previous cycles is the behavior of institutional flow. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted that institutional selling now represents the highest proportion of Coinbase's trading volume ever recorded, characterizing it as the most aggressive liquidation wave in the exchange's history.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt cautioned that if this level of selling persists, the price technically has room to fall towards $58,000 before finding equilibrium.
Concurrently, underlying signs of stabilization are beginning to emerge. The largest one-hour trading volume observed on Binance since October suggests that significant buyers have started absorbing forced sales for the first time in several weeks.
Current Market Status
Bitcoin's next significant price movement may depend less on opinions and more on which market participant group depletes first:
- •If sellers become exhausted, the probability of a recovery thesis increases.
- •If buyers remain hesitant, capitulation could continue further.
At present, neither buyers nor sellers have established dominance, and this uncertainty is precisely what defines the current market moment.