The Bitcoin USD chart is on track to conclude the 4th consecutive week in the red courtesy of aggressive outflows. While the bears have been crushing demand, one cannot help wonder how much lower BTC will go. Interestingly, the Bitcoin USD chart may offer insights into how things will play out in the mid to long term. Analysts recently highlighted an interesting pattern that has been playing out in BTC price for years, and one that could offer clues into how Bitcoin value will be affected in the coming months.
The Bitcoin USD performance highlighted almost clockwork movements between the bullish cycles. For example, the BTC bull cycle lasted for about 1,050 days from its lowest to highest level between 2015 and 2017. The subsequent bear market lasted about 364 days from 2017 to 2018.
The next bullish cycle lasted from about 1,071 days from 2018 lows to its 2021 high. The bears followed with a 364-day bear market. This brings us to the latest bull cycle which lasted about 1,064 days from September 2022 to September 2025. If the cycle continues, then Bitcoin (BTC USD) could extend its current bearish dominance up to September 2026.
Why the Japanese Bond Market is the Canary in the Coal Mine
While the historical bull and bear cycle tops and bottoms offer a sense of what to expect in the long run, the Japanese market highlights the road to getting there. Japan’s 2-year and 10-year government bonds have been rising. This is an important observation because it highlights the rising cost of borrowing the Japanese Yen. This consequently means the Yen carry trade continues to unwind, hence investors exit from risk-on assets. Higher Yen borrowing costs have also impacted the value of the Yen.
Rising yen and carry trade unwind may continue to place pressure on risk-on assets such as Bitcoin. However, this could be the outlet that the global markets need to cool off before the economic risks reset. It is possible that these risk-off factors may continue to fuel more downtrend especially in stocks and crypto over the coming months.
Bitcoin (BTC USD) Eyes the Next Support Level Near the $74,000 Price Level
Yen induced liquidity outflows may continue to suppress the Bitcoin bulls and support bearish dominance. Large order book flows signaled that whales were also contributing to BTC’s liquidity bleed rather than accumulating at discounted prices. The whale activity could point to more bearish expectations. Bitcoin (BTC USD) price exchanged hands just above $83,900 which was 10% away from retesting the $74,000 support level.
The $74,000 price level is important because it marks the cryptocurrency’s lowest level in the last 12 months. Beyond that, Bitcoin could potentially extend its decline especially if the bearish correction phase repeats based on historical performance. A severe enough downturn may push Bitcoin (BTC USD) as low as $50,000. A level that many investors did not anticipate but one that is increasingly looking possible under the prevailing market conditions.
Strategy CEO believes that more downside may be immensely advantageous for his company which aims to buy more BTC at discounted prices. Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy will get a chance to lower their average cost basis if Bitcoin extends its decline.