Permanent Bitcoin holders increased demand by +90,000 BTC in the past 30 days, reaching a historical high. This accumulation contrasts with institutional ETF outflows totaling $500 million last week. On-chain data mirrors 2022’s buildup before BTC’s strong 2023 rally, suggesting potential for upcoming price momentum.
Bitcoin navigates turbulent waters in late 2025, a fascinating divergence is unfolding on-chain. While short-term sentiment capitulates with sharp price declines, long-term crypto holders—those “permanent” addresses holding for over 155 days—are aggressively stacking sats, marking the largest accumulation phase in history. This anomaly, highlighted by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, underscores a classic tale of diamond hands prevailing over panic sellers.
ETF Outflows Contrast with Permanent Holder Demand
The data paints a stark picture. CryptoQuant’s 30-day demand change metric reveals permanent holder demand surging to +90,000 BTC in recent weeks, a purple spike towering over historical peaks. This contrasts sharply with ETF demand, which has plummeted into negative territory, reflecting institutional hesitation or profit-taking amid macroeconomic jitters like rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin’s price, hovering around $60,000 after a 15% drop from October highs, mirrors this short-term pain, but the underlying accumulation tells a different story.
Historical Perspective: Preceding Bullish Reversals
Historically, such divergences have been bullish harbingers. Recall 2022’s bear market lows: permanent holder inflows preceded the 2023 rally by months. Today, with over 1.2 million BTC absorbed by these HODLers since July—equivalent to roughly 6% of circulating supply—the setup echoes that resilience. Whales and institutions aren’t just holding; they’re feasting on the fear, absorbing supply that retail and short-term traders are dumping.
What This Means for Bitcoin Investors
What drives this? Beyond ETF approvals fading in allure, Bitcoin’s maturation as a store-of-value asset shines through. Nation-state adoption rumors, halving afterglow, and Layer-2 scaling advancements bolster confidence among serious players. Meanwhile, ETF outflows, totaling $500 million last week alone, may represent rebalancing rather than abandonment—smart money repositioning for the next leg up. This isn’t mere noise; it’s a structural shift.
The CryptoQuant analyst @MorenoDV_ notes, “Long-term capital is stepping in aggressively.” If history rhymes, expect volatility to give way to upward momentum by Q1 2026. For traders, it’s a reminder: in crypto, selloffs are often the best buying opportunities. Permanent holders aren’t just surviving—they’re thriving, positioning Bitcoin for its next chapter in the digital gold narrative.