Ripple's substantial escrow account has consistently been a focal point within the cryptocurrency community, influencing the release of XRP into the market. According to data from TheCryptoBasic on X, XRP possesses a total supply of approximately 99.9 billion tokens. Of this total, roughly 60 billion XRP are currently in circulation, while an estimated 35 billion remain locked within Ripple's escrow management.
This escrow mechanism was established to prevent the market from being oversaturated with tokens. However, it frequently becomes a subject of discussion and debate among XRP holders. A common concern is whether Ripple's considerable control over this large pool of XRP might hinder potential price appreciation. Conversely, other market participants argue that the escrow system contributes to market stability and mitigates the risk of sudden, large token dumps.
Current discussions surrounding a potential reduction in the escrow supply are generating significant speculation regarding the future implications for XRP's price should a substantial portion of these locked tokens be permanently removed from circulation.
Analyzing a 20% Reduction in XRP's Total Supply
TheCryptoBasic cited a theoretical scenario explored using Google Gemini. The core question posed was: what would be the outcome if Ripple were to reduce XRP's total supply by 20%? Gemini developed a model to investigate this possibility, emphasizing that this was purely a theoretical exercise and not a price prediction.
If 20% of XRP's total supply, which equates to approximately 19.98 billion tokens, were to be burned, the overall supply would decrease from 99.9 billion to an estimated 79.92 billion tokens. If these burned tokens were exclusively drawn from the escrow, Ripple's locked token pool would diminish from 35 billion to approximately 15.02 billion XRP.
Notably, the circulating supply of XRP would remain unaffected at 60 billion tokens in this scenario. This means that the immediate trading dynamics would not experience an overnight transformation. The primary alteration would be to the future supply dynamics, with fewer tokens available for release in the years to come.
Potential Long-Term Price Impact of Supply Reduction
Gemini's model suggested that a supply reduction of this magnitude could potentially exert long-term bullish pressure on the XRP token. Generally, a reduced available supply tends to support higher price levels, provided that demand remains consistent or experiences an increase.
As a result, we asked Google Gemini what might happen if Ripple burned 20% of XRP’s total supply. In response, Gemini presented a hypothetical model but clarified that the prediction was entirely theoretical. It explained that the outcome would depend on real-world factors like… pic.twitter.com/LzoDnCsYU5
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) November 1, 2025
Within the model, Gemini examined what it termed an "ultra-bullish" scenario. This hypothetical situation assumed a highly optimistic market sentiment, a supportive regulatory environment, and a significant increase in the adoption of the XRP Ledger for facilitating global payments. Under these ideal conditions, Ripple's market capitalization could theoretically reach approximately $4 trillion, representing a substantial increase of nearly 28 times from its current valuation of $144 billion.
The same model then divided this projected $4 trillion market capitalization by XRP's circulating supply of 60 billion tokens. This calculation resulted in a theoretical price of $66.67 per XRP, a dramatic surge from its current trading price of approximately $2.40, signifying a 27.8-fold increase in value.
It is crucial to understand that this scenario is entirely contingent upon perfect market conditions, robust growth in utility, and unwavering investor confidence. This is not presented as a definitive forecast, but rather as a mathematical exploration of potential outcomes if scarcity and market sentiment align perfectly.
Ripple Leadership's Perspective on Escrow Burns and XRP Value
Ripple executives have previously shared their views on the concept of burning escrowed XRP. David Schwartz, the company's Chief Technology Officer, has commented that token burns do not inherently guarantee a price increase. He pointed to Stellar's supply burn in 2019 as an example, which did not result in a sustained positive impact on its price.
This observation highlights a fundamental principle: while token burns can influence supply, they do not automatically dictate demand. A reduction in supply is only likely to drive higher prices when there is a corresponding increase in the number of individuals or entities actively seeking to purchase and utilize the asset.
The Enduring Significance of the XRP Supply Debate
The ongoing discussion about Ripple potentially reducing its escrow supply continues to shape how investors perceive XRP. For many, it represents a symbol of potential decentralization and scarcity within the market. For others, the focus remains on practical drivers of demand, such as the adoption of remittance services, the efficiency of cross-border payments, and increased institutional usage.
While the likelihood of a 20% reduction in escrow supply remains uncertain, the conversation underscores the intricate relationship between XRP's value and its supply model. The market often reacts not only to Ripple's current actions but also to the anticipation of its future strategic decisions.
The CryptoBasic's post has reignited interest in XRP's long-term potential. While Gemini's model offered an intriguing perspective on the possible effects of a 20% supply reduction, it is important to reiterate that this remains a hypothetical projection.
Ripple's escrow system is expected to continue playing a significant role in how investors evaluate XRP's future price trajectory. Although the figures discussed are theoretical, they serve as a reminder of the critical importance of supply control in the economics of cryptocurrencies.