Cardano (ADA), once the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization in 2021, has now fallen to the 10th position. During its 2021 rally, Cardano's price surged to $3.10, briefly surpassing other established assets like XRP.
However, ADA has experienced a significant decline since then, with XRP now holding the position of the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency globally. Like many other cryptocurrencies, ADA has faced an extended period of bearish market trends.
ADA Faces Bearish Pressure
While ADA has seen occasional price increases during favorable market conditions, persistent macroeconomic challenges, particularly ongoing global trade tensions, have continued to exert downward pressure on its value.
Furthermore, cryptocurrency "whales" have been consistently selling the token. According to an X post from Ali Martinez yesterday, whales sold 100 million ADA this week.
At its current price of $0.6426, Cardano is down 23.7% year-to-date (YTD). It has also seen declines of 8.72% over the past six months, 13% in the last three months, and 18.9% over the past 30 days. Cardano currently ranks as the 10th largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $23.04 billion.
Cardano's market capitalization is considerably lower than XRP's, which has a valuation exceeding $100 billion. With a unit price of approximately $2.58, XRP is valued at $154.9 billion and ranks as the third-largest non-stablecoin asset. In contrast to Cardano's performance, XRP has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.1% and a 16.6% rise over the past six months.
Projected Price for Cardano to Overtake XRP
For Cardano to surpass XRP in the global cryptocurrency rankings, its price would need to increase substantially to achieve a market capitalization exceeding XRP's current valuation of $154.9 billion.
Considering Cardano's circulating supply of approximately 35.86 billion ADA, it would require a market capitalization of at least $155 billion to overtake XRP. This translates to a target price of roughly $4.32 per ADA, representing a 572.26% increase from its current market value. Such an increase would also mark a new all-time high for Cardano, surpassing its previous record of $3.10 set in 2021.
While this calculation assumes a price of $4.32 could enable ADA to overtake XRP, it is important to note that any further price increase by XRP would widen the gap that Cardano needs to close. Additionally, in July, XRP's market capitalization reached a historic high of over $210 billion.
Community Forecasts for a $4 ADA Price
The $4 price target for ADA has been a recurring figure in various Cardano forecasts. In December 2024, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified the $4–$6 range as his target zone for taking profits on ADA.
Similarly, in July, analyst Crypto Smith identified a cup-and-handle pattern on Cardano's chart, suggesting that the token might be poised for a bullish breakout towards the $4 mark.
Furthermore, Cardano community figure Mintern predicted that ADA could reach $4 by the end of the year, despite Changelly's more conservative forecast, which projects this target will be achieved by 2029.