Hedera Sell Warning? Why This “Oversold” Setup Could Trigger a Monster HBAR Price Rally

Hedera’s native token HBAR is trading around $0.11, more than 80% below its all-time high from 2021, and many traders have quietly written it off as another slow-moving Layer 1. But according to popular crypto commentator Crypto X AiMan, this may be exactly the type of moment when selling becomes the biggest mistake.

In a recent video that has been gaining attention on X, Crypto X AiMan made a strong case that HBAR is technically and structurally positioned for a big rebound in 2026.

The data behind that claim is worth a closer look.

A Rare Oversold Signal That Has Only Appeared Three Times

One of the strongest points in Crypto X AiMan’s analysis comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). He highlights that HBAR’s RSI dropped to around 10–11, an extreme oversold level that has only occurred three times in Hedera’s history.

The first was during its launch phase in 2019.
The second came during the FTX collapse in 2022.
The third happened in late 2024, right before HBAR rallied nearly 10x, moving from roughly $0.04 to over $0.40 in a matter of months.

In each case, that deeply oversold reading marked a long-term bottom rather than the start of further collapse.

According to Crypto X AiMan, seeing that same signal again at today’s prices is not something to ignore lightly.

Why HBAR at $0.11 Looks “Too Cheap” by Market Standards

Beyond the charts, he also points to valuation and market positioning. At $0.11, the HBAR price is sitting far below what many comparable networks trade at, despite Hedera having one of the most institution-friendly architectures in crypto.

If HBAR were valued at a similar market cap to Solana during its recent peak, its price would approach $1.90, implying a potential 15x move from current levels. While that does not guarantee such a move will happen, it puts into perspective how compressed HBAR’s valuation is relative to its infrastructure and adoption.

Crypto X AiMan believes a price range between $1 and $2 per HBAR in 2026 is realistic if the broader market enters another expansion phase.

Network Strength Often Ignored by the Market

One reason Hedera continues to attract long-term supporters is its network usage and governance model.

Hedera has already processed over 70 billion transactions on its mainnet, placing it in the same category as Solana and XRP Ledger in terms of throughput and real-world usage. Its governing council includes major corporations like Google, IBM, LG, Boeing, T-Mobile, and others, which are not just symbolic names but actively participate in network decisions.

While the token price has struggled, the underlying network has continued to grow quietly.

Crypto X AiMan argues that this disconnect between price and fundamentals is exactly why HBAR looks mispriced today.

Institutional Interest Is Quietly Building

Another point raised in the analysis is institutional exposure. The recently launched Canary HBAR ETF reportedly acquired around 500 million HBAR, representing roughly 1% of total supply. At the same time, Grayscale and other fund providers are preparing crypto baskets and potential spot products that could include Hedera.

While these inflows are not yet dominating price action, they show that HBAR is increasingly on institutional radars; often a leading signal before retail interest returns.

So Is Selling HBAR Now a Mistake?

Crypto X AiMan is clear that this is not financial advice, but his core message is simple:
Selling HBAR near historic lows, while multiple long-term indicators flash oversold, is usually not how traders capture major upside.

That does not mean HBAR cannot remain volatile or even dip lower short term. But structurally, both technically and fundamentally, Hedera looks closer to a late-cycle bottom than an early-stage collapse.

From a broader perspective, this setup resembles the type of conditions that often precede strong multi-year recoveries rather than the end of a project.

HBAR’s price action over the last two years has been disappointing for many holders. But price alone rarely tells the full story.

With extreme oversold readings, growing institutional exposure, strong network usage, and a governance model built for enterprises, Hedera may be one of the more quietly positioned Layer 1s in 2026.