Market Corrections and the "Crypto Winter" Debate
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant recovery wave, which positively impacted the broader market. However, the sharp corrections observed over the past two months have reignited discussions about the possibility of a bear market and a subsequent "crypto winter."
Analysts are divided on the current market sentiment. Some contend that the recent declines signify the arrival of a bear market, while others argue that such substantial corrections are a normal characteristic of bull markets and that the bull trend remains intact.
Glassnode's Analysis: Too Early for "Crypto Winter" Declarations
In its latest report, analysis firm Glassnode stated that it is premature to definitively declare the market has entered a "crypto winter" or a prolonged bear market, asserting that such claims currently lack sufficient supporting evidence.
Glassnode and Fasanara Digital, in their joint report, highlighted that Bitcoin has historically experienced similar declines during periods of leverage reduction or macroeconomic tightening. They cited instances in 2017, 2020, and 2023 where Bitcoin saw significant dips before resuming its upward trajectory. The report suggests that the leverage reduction observed in October 2025 aligns with this historical pattern.
Further supporting their assessment, Glassnode and Fasanara Digital pointed to the substantial influx of over $732 billion in net new capital into Bitcoin since its 2022 cycle bottom as a key indicator of the ongoing bull run.
Citing several critical indicators, the analyst firms have put forth the argument that the current market downturn represents a mid-cycle consolidation phase rather than the onset of a bear market.
The report specifically noted that the capital inflows witnessed during the most recent Bitcoin cycle have surpassed the combined total of all previous cycles.
Key Indicators Suggesting a Bullish Outlook
Beyond the capital inflows, the spot price of Bitcoin has surged dramatically, rising from its 2022 bottom of $16,000 to a high of $126,000. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated 1.36 million BTC, representing 6.9% of the circulating supply, and continue to experience sustained demand.
The report from Glassnode and Fasanara Digital also emphasized that Bitcoin's current price action deviates significantly from patterns observed during previous crypto winters.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin is currently trading closer to its peak for the year, $126,000, than its cycle low of $76,000. This contrasts sharply with past crypto winters, where BTC had typically fallen much closer to the lower end of its trading range. The analysts maintain that for Bitcoin to be considered in a bear market season, it would need to experience a much more substantial decline.
Glassnode and Fasanara also identified the absence of fundamental bear market signals within Bitcoin's infrastructure. For instance, one-year realized volatility has decreased from 84% to 43%, a trend that is contrary to the heightened volatility typically seen at the commencement of past winters. Moreover, there is no observable evidence of falling miner hash rates or accumulating realized losses among long-term investors.