Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the market is misunderstanding where Bitcoin truly sits in its long-term cycle. While the recent rejection around $125,000 has triggered debates about whether the bull market is already over, van de Poppe argues that applying old models to a changing market leads to the wrong conclusions.
Breaking the “Standard” 4-Year Pattern
For more than a decade, the 4-year halving cycle has quietly shaped Bitcoin’s price structure. Peaks typically appear months after the halving, corrections follow, and then a new cycle begins. But this time, van de Poppe says the familiar blueprint is breaking down.
The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which injected over $60 billion of institutional capital into the market, created a historic shift. For the first time ever, Bitcoin printed a new all-time high before the halving instead of after it, something no previous cycle has seen.
This alone, he argues, is enough to stop treating the 2025 market like a carbon copy of earlier cycles.
The 4-year cycle has provided the #Bitcoin top!
It's probably the most common question and debate. Where are we in the cycle? Did Bitcoin just see its peak of this cycle?
Ultimately, it could be. Definitely. The rally to $125K happened just days before the government…
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 16, 2025
A Market Defined by New Demand, Not Old Timelines
The core of van de Poppe’s view is simple: Bitcoin’s environment is evolving faster than the models built to explain it.
- •Institutional inflows are now one of Bitcoin’s strongest demand engines.
- •ETF accumulation brought 60,000 BTC off the market in just 18 months.
- •Halvings continue to shrink yearly issuance, which now sits near 150,000 BTC per year and will keep falling.
Miners still sell part of this supply to cover operational costs, but the net amount entering circulation is approaching historic lows. Add institutional buyers on the other side of that equation, and the traditional four-year rhythm starts to lose predictive power.
“When the players change, the cycle changes,” van de Poppe says, and the current market has more new players than ever.
The Correction Still Fits Within a Bull Market
Even though sentiment has deteriorated since the government shutdown and macro headwinds turned harsher, van de Poppe points out that Bitcoin’s decline so far mirrors normal corrections seen in earlier bull markets.
What makes the resilience notable is the macro backdrop:
- •Growth indicators are weak
- •Risk assets remain under pressure
- •Liquidity conditions are far worse than in 2021
Yet Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the six-figure zone, far above where many analysts expected it to be with this economic climate.
Bottom Line: If the Macro Isn’t 2021, Why Should the Cycle Be?
Van de Poppe’s message is straightforward: Using the outdated 4-year model as a rigid framework misses the bigger picture. Bitcoin is maturing, demand sources are shifting, supply is tightening, and institutions are treating it more as a strategic allocation than a speculative trade.
Calling the cycle top at $125K based solely on “it happened before” logic, he warns, is short-sighted.
In his view, Bitcoin is not signaling the end of a cycle, it’s signaling the evolution of one.